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Volcano (FRA:VQY) Predictability Rank


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What is Volcano Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Volcano Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Volcano Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Volcano's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Volcano (FRA:VQY) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Volcano Corp incorporated in the state of Delaware in January 2000. The Company completed its initial public offering on June 15, 2006. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and commercializes a broad suite of precision guided therapy tools including intravascular ultrasound, or IVUS, and fractional flow reserve, or FFR, products. The IVUS products include single-procedure disposable phased array and rotational IVUS imaging catheters, and additional functionality options such as ChromaFlo stent apposition analysis. FFR offerings can be accessed through its multi-modality platforms, and it also provide FFR-only consoles. Its products include: IVUS Products, Catheters, its single-use disposable catheters operate and interface solely with its family of consoles. Catheters, its single-use disposable catheters operate and interface solely with its family of consoles. ChromaFlo stent apposition analysis technology uses sequential IVUS frames to differentiate circulating blood from stationary or anchored tissue. SyncVision, Sync-Rx Ltd, or Sync-Rx, an Israel-based company that develops advanced software applications designed to optimize and facilitate trans-catheter cardiovascular interventions using automated online image processing. FFR products consist of pressure and flow consoles and single-procedure disposable pressure and flow guide wires. The Company's primary imaging competitors globally are Boston Scientific, Inc., or Boston Scientific, with its IVUS offering and St. Jude Medical, Inc., or St. Jude with its OCT offering. In Japan, it also competes with Terumo Corporation, which offers both IVUS and OCT. In the FFR market, its primary competitor is St. Jude. Because of the size of the vascular market opportunities, competitors and potential competitors have dedicated and will continue to dedicate significant resources to aggressively promote their products. It has registered and common law trademarks in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world including, but not limited to, Aim, Axsun, Bi-Trieval, Centriq, ChromaFlo, ComboMap, ComboWire, Core, Crux, Crux Biomedical, Define, Eagle Eye, ETNA, FACT, FloMap, FloWire, Ginko, GlyDx, Hi-Q, iFR, In-Line Digital, Instant Wave-Free Ratio, Intentio, Octave, pcFM, Precision Guided Therapy, PreView, PrimeWire, PrimeWire Prestige, ReFlow, Revolution, SlyDx, s5i, SmartMap, SpinVision, Sync-Rx, Trak Back, Valet, Verrata, VH, VIBE, Virtual Histology, Visions, Volcano, Wavewire, Xtract and Zuum. The Company's medical device products are subject to extensive and rigorous regulation by the FDA, as well as other federal and state regulatory bodies in the U.S. and comparable authorities in other countries.

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