German American Bancorp (German American Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

What is German American Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

German American Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

German American Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of German American Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

German American Bancorp (German American Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » German American Bancorp Inc (NAS:GABC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

711 Main Street, P.O. Box 810, Jasper, IN, USA, 47546

Website

https://www.germanamerican.com

German American Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company. The Company's lines of business include 1) Retail and commercial banking business which involves attracting deposits from the general public and using those funds to originate consumer, commercial and agricultural, commercial and agricultural real estate, and residential mortgage loans. These core banking activities also include the sale of residential mortgage loans in the secondary market. 2) Wealth management services which involve providing trust, investment advisory, brokerage and retirement planning services to customers. 3) Insurance operations include the offering of a full range of personal and corporate property and casualty insurance products.

Executives

Thomas W Seger	director	711 MAIN ST, JASPER IN 47546
Jack Sheidler	director	1065 ASHLEY STREET, SUITE 200, BOWLING GREEN KY 42130
Susan J Ellspermann	director	711 MAIN ST, P O BOX 810, JASPER IN 47546
Zachary W Bawel	director	711 MAIN STREET BOX 810, JASPER IN 47546
Christina M Ryan	director	711 MAIN ST, P O BOX 810, JASPER IN 47546
Bradley C Arnett	officer: SVP, CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	711 MAIN ST, JASPER IN 47546
Diane B Medley	director	711 MAIN ST, PO BOX 810, JASPER IN 47546
Jason M Kelly	director	711 MAIN ST, JASPER IN 47546
Tyson J Wagler	director	711 MAIN ST, P O BOX 810, JASPER IN 47546
Chris A Ramsey	director	706 JEFFERSON STREET, TELL CITY IN 47586
Michael F Beckwith	officer: EVP - Chief Banking Officer	711 MAIN ST, JASPER IN 47546
Angela Curry	director	711 MAIN ST, P O BOX 810, JASPER IN 47546
Marc D Fine	director	830 WINDSOR WOODS DRIVE, EVANSVILLE IN 47715
Mark A Schroeder	director, officer: PRESIDENT / CEO	LEGRE & BARNES, 9100 KEYSTONE CROSSING SUITE 800, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Amy D Jackson	officer: EVP, Chief Administrative Offi	711 MAIN ST, JASPER IN 47546