GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » China Qinfa Group Ltd (HKSE:00866) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

China Qinfa Group (HKSE:00866) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2009. Start your Free Trial

What is China Qinfa Group Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Qinfa Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

China Qinfa Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of China Qinfa Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

China Qinfa Group (HKSE:00866) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » China Qinfa Group Ltd (HKSE:00866) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01303 HKSE:01393 HKSE:00702 HKSE:01738 HKSE:00065 HKSE:01878 HKSE:08203 HKSE:01229 HKSE:08250 HKSE:00645 SHSE:601088 ISX:BYAN BOM:512599 SHSE:601225 NSE:COALINDIA SHSE:600188 SHSE:601898 SHSE:601699 SZSE:000983 SHSE:600925
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 1 Pazhou Avenue East, Unit Nos. 2201 to 2208, Level 22, South Tower, Poly International Plaza, Haizhu District, Guangzhou, CHN
Website
http://www.qinfagroup.com
China Qinfa Group Ltd is a Hong-Kong based firm engaged in coal operation business involving coal mining, purchases and sales, filtering, storage, the blending of coal in the PRC, and shipping transportation. The company operates its business through two segments namely Coal and Shipping transportation segments. Coal business segment covers coal mining, purchases and sales, filtering, storage and blending of coal in the PRC, and Shipping transportation segment provides services of time charter and voyage charter of vessels. It has a business presence in the PRC and other countries, of which the majority of the revenue is generated within the PRC.
Executives
Xu Jihua 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fortune Pearl International Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Yang Yuan Jin Tong Wu Liu You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Xu Jihua 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fortune Pearl International Limited 2101 Beneficial owner

China Qinfa Group (HKSE:00866) Headlines

No Headlines