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BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Co (HKSE:01522) Predictability Rank


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What is BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Co (HKSE:01522) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Co Ltd (HKSE:01522) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:08081 HKSE:03680 HKSE:00771 HKSE:08229 HKSE:02350 HKSE:00046 HKSE:02501 HKSE:02176 HKSE:02280 HKSE:01402 ACN NSE:TCS IBM NSE:INFY FI NSE:HCLTECH CTSH XPAR:CAP FIS CDW
Traded in Other Exchanges
CN6:Germany
Address
No.4 Huixin East Street, Floor 15th, Tower 2, Fusheng Building, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN
Website
https://www.biitt.cn
BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Co Ltd is engaged in designing, implementing, selling, and maintenance, of application solutions for the networking and controlling systems of public transport. Its segments include Intelligent railway transportation, Infrastructure information, and Business development investment. The key part of the revenue is from the Intelligent railway transportation segment that provides design, production, implementation and sale, and maintenance of application solution services, which include related software, hardware, and spare parts in railway transportation areas. The group's revenue is from customers in the People's Republic of China.
Executives
Cao Mingda 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Trident Trust Company (cayman) Limited 2301 Trustee
Toplight Management Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Pang Ziqian 2202 Interest of your spouse
Central Huijin Investment Ltd. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Zai Bao Xian Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Co (HKSE:01522) Headlines

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