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Xuan Wu Cloud Technology Holdings (HKSE:02392) Predictability Rank


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What is Xuan Wu Cloud Technology Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Xuan Wu Cloud Technology Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Xuan Wu Cloud Technology Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Xuan Wu Cloud Technology Holdings Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
38 Haizhou Road, Dongsheng Yunding Building, Room 904, 9th Floor, Haizhu District, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, CHN
Xuan Wu Cloud Technology Holdings Ltd is an intelligent CRM services provider, providing CRM PaaS services and CRM SaaS services to clients. its CRM PaaS services mainly provide cPaaS to encapsulate messaging communication capabilities of the three telecommunication network operators for the customers to be integrated into the customer's business systems, thereby enabling the customers to access and utilize the communication capabilities as a service, and CRM SaaS services comprise of marketing cloud, sales cloud, and service cloud, which enable the Group to provide the customer with one-stop intelligent CRM services throughout their entire business cycle, from initial marketing to after-sales services. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the CRM PaaS Services.
Executives
Song Xiaohu 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bao Ya Ji Tuan Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Song Xiaohu 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chen Yonghui 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zheng Hao Huan Qiu Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Shanghai Fosun Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.
Guang Zhou Xuan Dong Tou Zi You Xian He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo 2101 Beneficial owner
Shang Ying Huan Qiu You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Hong Han Huan Qiu You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Huang Fangjie 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ge Ping 2501 Other
Shanghai Fosun Weishi Investment Management Co., Ltd.
Xie Lejun 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shanghai Fosun High Technology (group) Co., Ltd.
Shanghai Fosun Capital Investment Management Co., Ltd.

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