ITEX (ITEX) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is ITEX Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ITEX Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ITEX Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ITEX's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ITEX (ITEX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » ITEX Corp (OTCPK:ITEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

13555 South East 36th Street, Suite 210, Bellevue, WA, USA, 98006

Website

https://www.itex.com

ITEX Corp operates a marketplace in which products and services are exchanged by marketplace members utilizing virtual currency. Its Marketplace provides a forum for members to purchase from and sell their products and services to other members using ITEX dollars instead of the United States dollars and Canadian dollars (USD or cash). It administers the marketplace and provides record-keeping and payment transaction processing services for its members. They generate revenue by charging members percentage-based transaction fees, association fees, and other fees assessed in United States dollars and Canadian dollars.

Executives

Lion Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Biglari Capital Corp.	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Kevin H Callan	director	3326 160TH AVE. SE, STE. 100, BELLEVUE WA 98008
Timothy R Morones	director	3326 160TH AVE SE STE 100, BELLEVUE WA 98008
Sardar Biglari,	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	C/O BIGLARI HOLDINGS INC., 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Biglari Holdings Inc.	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	17802 IH 10 WEST, SUITE 400, SAN ANTONIO TX 78257
Western Sizzlin Corp	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	317 KIMBALL AVENUE NW, ROANOKE VA 24016
G. Andrew Cooke	10 percent owner	3110 9TH ROAD N. APT. B, ARLINGTON VA 22201
David Polonitza	10 percent owner	54B SANDRA CIRCLE, APT B1, WESTFIELD NJ 07090
Pagidipati Family Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	2955 SE 3RD COURT, OCALA FL 34471
Corner Market Capital Corp	10 percent owner	BOX 36, #1620 - 1140 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6E-4G1
Sanjeev Parsad	10 percent owner	21-355 DUTHIE AVENUE, BURNABY A1 V5A-2P3
Alnesh Mohan	10 percent owner	702-583 BEACH CRESCENT, VANCOUVER A1 V6Z-3E6
Corner Market Capital U.s., Inc.	10 percent owner	BOX 36, #1620 - 1140 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6E-4G1
Mpic Fund I Lp	10 percent owner	1199 WEST PENDER STREET, SUITE 680, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 2R1

ITEX (ITEX) Headlines

From GuruFocus

ITEX Corp: Undervalued?

By Mark Yu Mark Yu • 07-20-2016

Deep Value Opportunity in the economically favorable business of Bartering

By shadowstock shadowstock • 01-22-2011

ITEX Commences Cash Tender Offer to Purchase its Common Stock Up to 527,779 Shares at $4.30 per Share

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 03-04-2019

ITEX Corporation Major Shareholder Interview

By guruek Saj Karsan • 04-15-2010