Kosmos Energy (Kosmos Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Kosmos Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kosmos Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kosmos Energy (Kosmos Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Kosmos Energy Ltd (NYSE:KOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KOSl:UK KOS:UK KOS1:Germany

Address

C/O Kosmos Energy LLC, 8176 Park Lane, Suite 500, Dallas, TX, USA, 75231

Website

https://www.kosmosenergy.com

Kosmos Energy Ltd is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on frontier and emerging areas along the Atlantic Margin. The company focuses on field developments designed to accelerate production. Kosmos' exploration is tied to a geologically based approach geared toward the identification of petroleum systems. Its process starts with geologic studies that assess a region's subsurface but also incorporates basin modeling as well as techniques to identify reservoir/seal pair development and trap definition. In addition, a 3D seismic analysis is done to identify prospective traps of interest. In tandem with the subsurface analysis, a country-specific analysis is done to get an understanding of above-ground dynamics before targeting specific licenses.

Executives

Roy A. Franklin	director	8176 PARK LANE, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75231
Deanna L Goodwin	director	11911 FM 529, HOUSTON TX 77041
Grant John Douglas Kelso	director	8176 PARK LANE, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75231
Hanssen Maria Moraeus	director	5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FL, HOUSTON TX 77056
J Michael Stice	director	525 CENTRAL PARK DRIVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73105
Dearlove Sir Richard Billing	director	C/O KOSMOS ENERGY LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Nealesh D. Shah	officer: SVP and CFO	C/O KOSMOS ENERGY, LLC, 8176 PARK LANE, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75231
Ronald W. Glass	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL LLP, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Richard Ryan Clark	officer: SVP, President Gulf of Mexico	501 WHITE WING LANE, HOUSTON TX 77079
Andrew G Inglis	director, officer: Director and CEO	C/O KOSMOS ENERGY, LLC, 8176 PARK LANE, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75231
Steven Sterin	director	19100 RIDGEWOOD PARKWAY, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Lisa Ann Davis	director	2555 TELEGRAPH RD, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Warburg Pincus & Co.	director, 10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY NY 100173147
Blackstone Holdings Iii L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Bcp Iv Gp L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154