Lesaka Technologies (Lesaka Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Lesaka Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lesaka Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lesaka Technologies (Lesaka Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Lesaka Technologies Inc (NAS:LSAK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LSK:South Africa

Address

Corner Jan Smuts Avenue and Bolton Road, President Place, 4th Floor, Rosebank, Johannesburg, GT, ZAF, 2196

Website

https://www.lesakatech.com

Lesaka Technologies Inc provides payment solutions, transaction processing solutions, and financial technologies. The company operates two reportable segments: Merchant and Consumer. The company operates mainly within South Africa. The Merchant segment that derives majority revenue includes activities related to the provision of goods and services provided to corporate and other juristic entities. It earns fees from processing activities performed for its customers and revenue generated from the distribution of prepaid airtime. The Consumer segment includes activities related to the provision of financial services to customers, including bank accounts, loans, and insurance products. The firm charges monthly administration fees for all bank accounts.

Executives

Ali Mazanderani	director	C/O NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4TH FL CNR JAN SMUT AVE & BOLTON RD., ROSEBANK, JOHANNESBURG T3 00000
Value Capital Partners (pty) Ltd	10 percent owner	ROSEBANK LINK, 173 OXFORD ROAD, 8TH FLOOR, GAUTENG T3 2196
Meyer Christopher G.b.	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4TH FL CNR JAN SMUT AVE & BOLTON RD, ROSEBANK, JOHANNESBURG T3 00000
Sharron Venessa Naidoo	director	643 WILLOWGROVE ROAD, DAINFERN T3 2055
Lincoln Camagu Mali	officer: CEO: South Africa	C/O NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4TH FL CNR JAN SMUT AVE & BOLTON RD, ROSEBANK, JOHANNESBURG T3 00000
Steven John Heilbron	director, officer: Connect Grp Chief Exec Officer	C/O SOUVARIS PROPERTIES 45 PTY LTD, 139 KLOOF ROAD, CLIFTON T3 8005
Monde Nkosi	director	C/O VALUE CAPITAL PARTNERS, 173 OXFORD ROAD, ROSEBANK LINK 8TH FLOOR, GAUTENG T3 2196
Anthony C Ball	director	PRIVATE BAG XI, NORTHLANDS T3 2116
Naeem Ebrahim Kola	director, officer: Group Chief Financial Officer	VILLA E2, STREET E13, DISTRICT 5, JUMEIRAH PARK, DUBAI C0 00000
Nonkululeko Nompumelelo Gobodo	director	C/O NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4TH FL CNR JAN SMUT AVE & BOLTON RD, ROSEBANK, JOHANNESBURG T3 00000
Nunthakumarin Pillay	officer: Managing Dir.: South Africa	PRESIDENT PLACE, 4TH FLOOR, CNR. JAN SMUTS AVENUE AND BOLTON ROAD, ROSEBANK, JOHANNESBURG T3 T3
Jabulane Albert Mabuza	director	C/O NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4TH FL CNR JAN SMUT AVE & BOLTON RD., ROSEBANK, JOHANNESBURG T3 00000
Javed Hamid	director	C/O NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4TH FL CNR JAN SMUT AVE & BOLTON RD, ROSEBANK, JOHANNESBURG T3 00000
Ekta Singh-bushell	director	9197 S. PEORIA ST., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Kubandiran Pillay	director	C/O NET 1 UEPS TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4TH FL CNR JAN SMUTS AVE & BOLTON RD, ROSEBANK, JOHANNESBURG T3 00000