Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (Lexicon Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lexicon Pharmaceuticals (Lexicon Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:LXRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2445 Technology Forest Boulevard, 11th Floor, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77381

Website

https://www.lexpharma.com

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in the discovery, development, and commercialization of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of human diseases. Some of its drugs candidates are LX9211, an orally-delivered small molecule drug candidate, as a treatment for neuropathic pain; and sotagliflozin, an orally-delivered small molecule drug candidate, as a treatment for heart failure and type 1 diabetes.

Executives

Philippe Amouyal	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Lonnel Coats	director, officer: President and CEO	8800 TECHNOLOGY FOREST PLACE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Raymond Debbane	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THE INVUS GROUP, LLC, 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Thomas Garner	officer: SVP, Chief Commercial Officer	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, 11TH FLOOR, SPRING TX 77381
Jeffrey L Wade	officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel	8800 TECHNOLOGY FOREST PLACE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Wendy Mcdermott	officer: VP, Human Resources	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., 11TH FLOOR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Diane E. Sullivan	director	C/O AMARIN CORPORATION PLC, 77 SIR JOHN ROGERSON'S QUAY, BLOCK C, DUBLIN 2 L2 D02 VK60
Artal International S.c.a.	director, 10 percent owner	VALLEY PARK, 44, RUE DE LA VALLEE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2661
Invus Partners, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	750 LEXINGTON AVE, 30TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ulys, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THE INVUS GROUP, LLC, 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kiernan Seth	officer: VP, Chief Commercial Officer	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., 11TH FLOOR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Kenneth B. Kassler-taub	officer: SVP, Regulatory & QA	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., 11TH FLOOR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Kristen Alexander	officer: VP, Finance and Accounting	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., 11TH FLOOR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Craig B Granowitz	officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer	58 CHESTNUT STREET, UNIT #3, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
James F Tessmer	officer: VP, Finance & Acctg	8800 TECHNOLOGY FOREST PLACE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381