China Ming Yang Wind Power Group (China Ming Yang Wind Power Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is China Ming Yang Wind Power Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Ming Yang Wind Power Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

China Ming Yang Wind Power Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of China Ming Yang Wind Power Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

China Ming Yang Wind Power Group (China Ming Yang Wind Power Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » China Ming Yang Wind Power Group Ltd (NYSE:MY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.mywind.com.cn

China Ming Yang Wind Power Group Ltd founded in 2006. The Company is a wind turbine manufacturer in China, focusing on designing, manufacturing, selling and servicing megawatt-class wind turbines and the provision of related maintenance services in the People's Republic of China (the "PRC") and the Republic of India ("India"). Its current products consist of (i) basic models of wind turbines with a rated power capacity of 1.5MW, (ii) wind turbines with a rated power capacity of 2.0MW, and (iii) 2.5/3.0MW SCD wind turbines. Each product type may be installed with one of three rotor blade models depending on the location and wind conditions. 1.5MW wind turbines are widely used model in China. As of December 31, 2013, the Company had entered into sales contracts with 45 end customers to deliver 4,804 units of its wind turbines, representing wind power output of approximately 7,588.5MW. Its customers include five Chinese state-owned power producers, namely Huaneng, China Datang, Huadian, China Guodian Corporation, or Guodian, and China Power Investment Corporation, or CPIC, or their alternative energy subsidiaries, such as China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited, or Longyuan, a subsidiary of Guodian, and Datang Corporation Renewable Power Co., Limited, or Datang Renewable, a subsidiary of China Datang. The Company also sells wind turbines to regional alternative energy investment companies, regional power producers and wind farm operators in the private sector. Its facilities are currently located in Zhongshan, Tianjin, Jilin, Rudong, Dali, Inner Mongolia and Gansu (including Hami area) in China. The Company has two operating segments, which are manufacture and sale of wind turbines in PRC and the manufacture and sale of wind turbines in India. The Company competes with both domestic and international wind turbine manufacturers. Its domestic competitors include Sinovel, Goldwind, Dongfang Electric and United Power. Its key international competitors in China include Vestas from Denmark, Gamesa CorporaciÃ³n TecnolÃ³gica S.A. from Spain and GE Energy, the alternative energy arm of GE from the United States.In addition, the wind power industry also faces competition from conventional and non-wind power alternative energy technologies.

China Ming Yang Wind Power Group (China Ming Yang Wind Power Group) Headlines

No Headlines