Northern Tier Energy LP (Northern Tier Energy LP) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2012. Start your Free Trial

What is Northern Tier Energy LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Northern Tier Energy LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Northern Tier Energy LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Northern Tier Energy LP's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Northern Tier Energy LP (Northern Tier Energy LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Northern Tier Energy LP (NYSE:NTI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.ntenergy.com

Northern Tier Energy LP was incorporated on October 21, 2011. Its an independent downstream energy limited partnership with refining, retail and pipeline operations that serves the PADD II region of the United States. The Company operate its assets in two business segments: the refining business and the retail business. Its refining segment consists of an 89,500 barrels per calendar day (96,500 barrels per stream day) refinery located in St. Paul Park, Minnesota. Its refinery's complexity allows to process a variety of light, heavy, sweet and sour crudes into higher value refined products. Its retail segment operated 164 convenience stores under the SuperAmerica brand and also supported 75 franchised convenience stores, which are also operated under the SuperAmerica brand. These convenience stores are located in Minnesota and Wisconsin and sell various grades of gasoline and diesel, tobacco products and immediately consumable items such as beverages, prepared food and a large variety of snacks and prepackaged items. It also own and operate SuperMom's Bakery, which prepares and distributes baked goods and other prepared food items for sale in its company-operated and franchised convenience stores and other third party locations. Crude oil is the principal raw material for the Company and the majority of the crude oil processed is delivered to the refinery through a pipeline that is owned by MPL, a related party. With respect to its wholesale gasoline and distillate sales and marketing, it compete directly with Koch Industries' Flint Hills Resources Refinery in Pine Bend, Minnesota, as well as the other refiners in the PADD II region and, to a lesser extent, U.S. and foreign refiners. Its retail competitors include Holiday and Kwik Trip.

Executives

David L Lamp	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O CVR ENERGY, INC., 2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Thomas W Hofmann	director	FIVE RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER, SUITE 500, RADNOR PA 19087
Scott D Weaver	director	C/O WESTERN REFINING, INC., 6500 TROWBRIDGE DRIVE, EL PASO TX 79905
Melissa M Buhrig	officer: Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec	C/O CVR ENERGY, INC., 2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Dan F Smith	director	1221 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77010
Western Refining, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	539 SOUTH MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840-3229
Karen Berriman Davis	officer: Executive VP and CFO	123 WEST MILLS AVENUE, SUITE 200, EL PASO TX 79901
Scott D Josey	director	ONE BRIARLAKE PLAZA, SUITE 2000, 2000 WEST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY SOUTH, HOUSTON TX 77042
David Bonderman	other: Former 10% Owner and Director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
James G Coulter	other: Former 10% Owner and Director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Bernard W Aronson	director
Tpg Advisors Vi, Inc.	other: Former 10% Owner and Director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Tpg Group Holdings (sbs) Advisors, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Michael G. Macdougall	director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Eric Liaw	director	C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102

Northern Tier Energy LP (Northern Tier Energy LP) Headlines

From GuruFocus

How to Capitalize on the Bakken Oil Boom

By Vitaliy Katsenelson Vitaliy Katsenelson • 11-09-2013

By Dividend Dividend • 06-25-2013

9 Stocks with Double-Digit Yields and Buy or Better Recommendations

By Dividend Dividend • 07-17-2013

13 Stocks With Dividend Yields Over 10%

By Dividend Dividend • 11-12-2014

18 Stocks with Very High Yields (More Than 10%) and Earnings Growth

By Dividend Dividend • 12-20-2012

20 Stocks with Yields over 10% and Highest Buy Ratings

By Dividend Dividend • 01-17-2013

9 Stocks With Yields Over 10% And Buy Or Better Rating

By Dividend Dividend • 08-17-2013