Rhinebeck Bancorp (Rhinebeck Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Rhinebeck Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rhinebeck Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rhinebeck Bancorp (Rhinebeck Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Rhinebeck Bancorp Inc (NAS:RBKB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2 Jefferson Plaza, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA, 12601

Website

https://www.rhinebeckbank.com

Rhinebeck Bancorp Inc is the holding company for Rhinebeck Bank which provides a full range of banking and financial services to consumer and commercial customers. Financial services, including investment advisory and financial product sales, are offered through a division of the Bank doing business as Rhinebeck Asset Management (RAM). The Bank's primary business activity is accepting deposits from the general public and using those funds to originate indirect automobile loans (automobile loans referred by automobile dealerships), commercial real estate loans (which include multi-family real estate loans and commercial construction loans), commercial business loans and one- to four-family residential real estate loans, and to purchase investment securities.

Executives

Jamie J. Bloom	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Louis Jr. Tumolo	director	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Mark D. Malone	officer: Chief Retail Officer	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Michael J. Quinn	director, officer: President & CEO	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Karen E. Morgan-d'amelio	officer: CRO, Gen. Cnsl and Corp Sec.	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Philip J Bronzi	officer: Chief Lending Officer	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Michael J. Mcdermott	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Mccardle James T. Iii	officer: Chief Credit Officer	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Francis X. Dwyer	officer: President of Subsidiary	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Timmian Massie	officer: Chief Mktg/Pub Aff Ofc	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Steven E Howell	director	12 MAIN STREET, WALDEN NY 12586
William C. Irwin	director	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Christopher W. Chestney	director	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Freddimir Garcia	director	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601
Shannon Martin Lafrance	director	2 JEFFERSON PLAZA, POUGHKEEPSIE NY 12601