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Sow Good (Sow Good) Predictability Rank


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What is Sow Good Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sow Good Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Sow Good Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sow Good (Sow Good) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Sow Good Inc (NAS:SOWG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NAII TLCC GWLL PLAG CTGL RGF PAVS NCRA PETZ FARM XSWX:NESN KHC GIS XPAR:BN SHSE:603288 NSE:NESTLEIND SZSE:300999 SHSE:600887 TSE:2802 LSE:ABF
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1440 N Union Bower Road, Irving, TX, USA, 75061
Website
https://www.thisissowgood.com
Sow Good Inc is engaged in manufacturing and marketing freeze-dried snacks, smoothies, and soups.
Executives
Joe Mueller director 6927 ALTAMONTE DRIVE, ROGERS AR 72758
Ira Goldfarb director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman (1) 1918 N. OLIVE ST, DALLAS TX 75201
Brad Berman director, 10 percent owner C/O LAKES ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 130 CHESHIRE LANE, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Claudia Goldfarb director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer (2) 1918 N. OLIVE STREET, APT. 3302, DALLAS TX 75201
Lyle Berman director, 10 percent owner 10275 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Timothy James Creed director 3418 GOLF CLUB LN., NASHVILLE TN 37215
Brad Burke officer: Interim CFO 4049 PURDUE AVE, DALLAS TX 77225
Chris Ludeman director 6154 PARK LANE, DALLAS TX 75225
Greg Creed director 1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
S-fdf, Llc 10 percent owner 1440 N. UNION BOWER RD., IRVIN TX 75061
Benjamin S Oehler director 10275 WAYZATA BLVD. SUITE 100, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Joseph J Lahti director 2975 SOMERSET LANE, LONG LAKE MN 55356
Kenneth Decubellis officer: Chief Executive Officer 10275 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 310, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Neil I Sell 10 percent owner 3300 WELLS FARGO CENTER, 90 SOUTH 7TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Michael Eisele officer: Chief Operating Officer 10275 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, MINNETONKA MN 55305