Web.com Group (Web.com Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Web.com Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Web.com Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Web.com Group (Web.com Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Web.com Group Inc (NAS:WEB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.web.com

Web.com Group Inc provides a range of internet services to small businesses to help them compete and succeed online. The company offers a range of Web services and products that enable small businesses to establish, maintain, promote, and optimize their online presence. It meets the needs of small businesses anywhere along their lifecycle with affordable, subscription-based solutions including domains, hosting, website design and management, search engine optimization, online marketing campaigns, local sales leads, social media, mobile products and E-commerce solutions. Geographically, the group operates through the market of United States and derives revenue through source of subscription.

Executives

Kevin M Carney	officer: Executive Vice President	12735 GRAN BAY PARKWAY WEST, BUILDING 200, JACKSONVILLE FL 32258
Timothy I Maudlin	director	18739 VOGEL FARM TRAIL, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Hugh M Durden	director
Timothy Cost	director
Ahmet H Okumus	10 percent owner	C/O OKUMUS FUND MANAGEMENT LTD., 767 THIRD AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Okumus Opportunistic Value Fund Ltd.	10 percent owner	CRAIGMUIR CHAMBERS, SUITE 71, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 VG 1110
Okumus Fund Management Ltd.	10 percent owner	767 THIRD AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Anton J Levy	director	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
General Atlantic, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: *See Remarks	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Gapstar Llc	10 percent owner, other: *See Remarks	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Gapco Gmbh & Co Kg	10 percent owner, other: *See Remarks	C/O GENERAL ATLANTIC SERVICE COMPANY, 55 EAST 52ND ST. 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Management Gmbh Gapco	10 percent owner, other: *See Remarks	C/O GENERAL ATLANTIC SERVICE COMPANY, 55 EAST 52ND STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Gap-w, Llc	10 percent owner, other: *See Remarks	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
General Atlantic Genpar, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: *See Remarks	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
General Atlantic Partners 83, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: *See Remarks	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 32ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10055