Weis Markets (Weis Markets) Predictability Rank

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What is Weis Markets Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Weis Markets Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Weis Markets Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Weis Markets (Weis Markets) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Weis Markets Inc (NYSE:WMK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1000 S. Second Street, P.O. Box 471, Sunbury, PA, USA, 17801-0471

Website

https://www.weismarkets.com

Weis Markets Inc is a U.S.-based company that is principally engaged in retailing food products in Pennsylvania and surrounding states. The company's products consist of center-store goods, fresh goods, pharmacy services, fuel, and other. The center-store goods include groceries, dairy products, frozen foods, alcoholic beverage, and general merchandise items. The fresh goods include meats, seafood, floral, prepared foods, and bakery products. The center-store goods and fresh goods jointly account for the majority of the company's total revenue.

Executives

Robert G. Gleeson	officer: SVP, Merchandising & Marketing	1000 SOUTH 2ND STREET, PO BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801
Kurt A Schertle	officer: Sr. VP Merch. and Marketing	1000 SOUTH SECOND STREET, P.O. BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801-0471
Michael T Lockard	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	1000 SOUTH 2ND STREET, PO BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801
Jennifer Weis	other: Member of a 10% owner group	C/O WEIS MARKETS, INC., 1000 SOUTH SECOND STREET, PO BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801
Zeh Richard Gregory Jr	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	1000 SOUTH 2ND STREET, PO BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801
Scott F Frost	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	1000 SOUTH SECOND STREET, PO BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801
Wayne S Bailey	officer: Vice President Grocery Merch.
Jonathan H Weis	director, officer: Vice President and Secretary
Dennis G Hatchell	director	305 GREGSON DRIVE, CARY NC 27511
Gerrald B Silverman	director	207 CROSS STREET, BELMONT MA 02478
Lauth Edward John Iii	director	485 SCENERY DRIVE, STATE COLLEGE PA 16801
Harold G Graber	officer: Vice President Real Estate
Patricia R. Weis Marital Trust	10 percent owner	C/O WEIS MARKETS, INC., 1000 SOUTH, SECOND STREET, P.O. BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801
Weis Collen Ross	other: Member of a 10% owner group	C/O WEIS MARKETS, INC., 1000 SOUTH SECOND STREET, PO BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801
Kathryn Jane Zox	other: Member of a 10% owner group	1000 SOUTH SECOND STREET, PO BOX 471, SUNBURY PA 17801