AAR (AIR) Predictability Rank

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What is AAR Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AAR Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AAR (AIR) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » AAR Corp (NYSE:AIR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ARZ:Germany ARZ:Germany

Address

1100 N. Wood Dale Road, One AAR Place, Wood Dale, IL, USA, 60191

Website

https://www.aarcorp.com

AAR Corp is engaged in providing products and services to aviation, government, and defense market. It operates in two segments namely Aviation Services and Expeditionary Services. The Aviation Services segment consists of aftermarket support and services businesses that provide spares and maintenance support for aircraft operated by it's commercial and government/defense customers. The Expeditionary Services segment consists of businesses that provide products and services supporting the movement of equipment and personnel by the U.S. Department of Defense, foreign governments, and non-governmental organizations. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Aviation Services Segment.

Executives

Peter Pace	director	C/O AAR CORP., 1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Holmes John Mcclain Iii	officer: Group Vice President	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Billy Nolen	director	1100 N WOOD DALE RD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Sean M. Gillen	officer: VP-CFO	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Eric Pachapa	officer: VP, Controller and CAO	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Jessica A. Garascia	officer: Vice President and Secretary	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Tracey Patterson	officer: Sr. VP & Chief HR Officer	1100 N WOOD DALE RD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Christopher A. Jessup	officer: Vice President-CCO	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Jennifer L Vogel	director	C/O AAR CORP., 1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
John W Dietrich	director
Anthony Anderson	director	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Gilbertson H John Jr	director	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
David P Storch	director, officer: President, CEO & Director	C/O AAR CORP, 1111 NICHOLAS BLVD, 1111 NICHOLAS BLVD IL 60007
Michael Ross Boyce	director	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Ellen M. Lord	director	1100 N. WOOD DALE ROAD, WOOD DALE IL 60191