BNCCORP (BNCCORP) Predictability Rank

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What is BNCCORP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BNCCORP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

BNCCORP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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BNCCORP (BNCCORP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » BNCCORP Inc (OTCPK:BNCC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

322 East Main Avenue, P.O. Box 4050, Bismarck, ND, USA, 58501

Website

http://www.bnccorp.com

BNCCORP Inc is a bank holding company. The company operates in three segments: Community Banking, Mortgage Banking, and Holding company. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Community banking segment, which provides business & personal loans, commercial real estate loans, SBA loans, business & personal checking, saving products, cash management, wealth management, and retirement plan administration.

Executives

Bradley D Bonga	director	C/O BNCCORP, INC, 322 EAST MAIN STREET, BISMARCK ND 58501
Jerry R Woodcox	director
Stephen H Roman	director	322 EAST MAIN AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58501
Timothy J Franz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	322 EAST MAIN AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58501
Johnsen Richard M Jr	director
Gaylen A Ghylin	director	322 EAST MAIN AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58501
E Thomas Welch	director, officer: Pres-BNC Natl Bank-Minnesota	11925 ST. ALBANS HOLLOW DRIVE, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Mark W Sheffert	director	4700 IDS CENTER, 80 SOUTH 8TH STREET, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Mark E Peiler	officer: Chief Investment Officer
Dave Hoekstra	officer: Chief Credit Officer	322 EAST MAIN AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58501
Shawn Cleveland Goll	officer: Chief Operating Officer
Neil M Brozen	officer: SVP Trust & Financial Services	322 EAST MAIN AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58501
Mark A Litton	officer: Chief Credit Officer	322 EAST MAIN AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58501
Jerry D Renk	officer: President - North Dakota	322 EAST MAIN AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58501
David A Zelinsky	officer: President - Minnesota	322 EAST MAIN AVENUE, BISMARCK ND 58501