Spain Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns

Updated at Sun, 25 Sep 2016 20:30:10 -0500
Country: Spain (updated daily) check out Global Overview for detailed methodology.

Ratio of total market cap over GDP: Maximum - 235%; Minimum - 50%; current - 81%
Expected future annual return: 11.0%

ETF Used for dividend yield: EWP (Yield=4.77%)
Market Index used: IBEX 35
Current Annual GDP: $1,580 billion US dollars or 1,154 in billions of national currency (GDP in Local Current Prices Annual Growth=3.03%)
Data since year 1993


Spain Historical GDP Growth

Historical GDP of Spain in billions of national currency. The GDP in local current prices has grown at the annual rate of 3.03% over the past 8 years. Please note this growth rate includes the effect of price inflation and it is NOT the real GDP growth rate. Current Annual GDP: $1,580 billion US dollars or 1,154 in billions of national currency.

Spain GDP (Billion, National Currency)

Historical Stock Market Cap

Historical total market of Spain in billions of national currency. This value is normalized using the data published by WorldBank. IBEX 35 is used for the normalization. It is a market capitalization weighted index comprising the 35 most liquid Spanish stocks traded in the Madrid Stock Exchange General Index.

Spain Total Market Cap (Billion, National Currency)

Historical Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for Spain is 81%. The historical high was 235%; the historical low was 50%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the historical mean of 105% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is 3.24%. This is the detailed historical chart of the ratio.

Spain Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

Conclusion

The stock market of Spain is expected to return 11.0% a year for the coming years. This is from the contribution of economic growth in local current prices: 3.03%, Dividend Yield: 4.77% and valuation reverse to the mean 3.24%.

This is the projected return of the stock market in Spain relative to other countries. Click on each bar in the chart to go to other countries:


You can go here to see what international stocks Gurus are buying.

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