Mexico Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns

Updated at Wed, 28 Sep 2016 20:30:08 -0500
Country: Mexico (updated daily) check out Global Overview for detailed methodology.

Ratio of total market cap over GDP: Maximum - 46%; Minimum - 12%; current - 39%
Expected future annual return: 3.0%

ETF Used for dividend yield: EWW (Yield=1.09%)
Market Index used: Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones
Current Annual GDP: $1,409 billion US dollars or 18,255 in billions of national currency (GDP in Local Current Prices Annual Growth=6.16%)
Data since year 1991


Mexico Historical GDP Growth

Historical GDP of Mexico in billions of national currency. The GDP in local current prices has grown at the annual rate of 6.16% over the past 8 years. Please note this growth rate includes the effect of price inflation and it is NOT the real GDP growth rate. Current Annual GDP: $1,409 billion US dollars or 18,255 in billions of national currency.

Mexico GDP (Billion, National Currency)

Historical Stock Market Cap

Historical total market of Mexico in billions of national currency. This value is normalized using the data published by WorldBank. Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones is used for the normalization. Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones (IPC) is an index of 35 stocks that trade on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores.

Mexico Total Market Cap (Billion, National Currency)

Historical Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for Mexico is 39%. The historical high was 46%; the historical low was 12%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the historical mean of 28% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is -4.23%. This is the detailed historical chart of the ratio.

Mexico Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

Conclusion

The stock market of Mexico is expected to return 3.0% a year for the coming years. This is from the contribution of economic growth in local current prices: 6.16%, Dividend Yield: 1.09% and valuation reverse to the mean -4.23%.

This is the projected return of the stock market in Mexico relative to other countries. Click on each bar in the chart to go to other countries:


You can go here to see what international stocks Gurus are buying.

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