S&T Bancorp (S&T Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is S&T Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

S&T Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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S&T Bancorp (S&T Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » S&T Bancorp Inc (NAS:STBA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

800 Philadelphia Street, Indiana, PA, USA, 15701

Website

https://www.stbancorp.com

S&T Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company. The company operates in five markets including Western Pennsylvania, Eastern Pennsylvania, Northeast Ohio, Central Ohio and Upstate New York. It has one reporting unit, Community Banking. The company provides financial services with retail and commercial banking products, cash management services, trust and brokerage services. The company earns revenue from interest on loans and securities and fees charged for financial services provided to its customers.

Executives

Adkins Lewis W Jr	director	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Jeffrey D Grube	director	C/O S&T BANK ACCOUNTING DEPT, P O BOX 190, INDIANA PA 15701
Rachel Lynn Smydo	officer: Executive Vice President	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
James Arvo Michie	officer: Executive Vice President	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
William J Hieb	director	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Susan A Nicholson	officer: Executive Vice President	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Christopher J. Mccomish	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Peter Richard Barsz	director	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
James Thomas Gibson	director	C/O S&T BANK ACCOUNTING DEPT, 800 PHILADELPHIA ST, INDIANA PA 15701
Christina Anne Cassotis	director	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Christine J Olson	director	C/O S&T BANK ACCOUNTING DEPT, 800 PHILADELPHIA ST, INDIANA PA 15701
David G Antolik	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	C/O S&T BANK ACCOUNTING DEPT, 800 PHILADELPHIA ST, INDIANA PA 15701
Jerry Delmar Hostetter	director	C/O S&T BANK ACCOUNTING DEPT, 800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701
Carroll Charles Benner Jr	officer: Executive Vice President	1500 NITTERHOUSE DRIVE, CHAMBERSBURG PA 17201
Brian Richard Dobis	officer: Executive Vice President	800 PHILADELPHIA STREET, INDIANA PA 15701