What is Troika Media Group Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Troika Media Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Troika Media Group (Troika Media Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
25 West 39th Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10018
Troika Media Group Inc is a global marketing service company. It is leveraging data and technology to deliver integrated branding, marketing, media, and analytics solutions to clients. It offers solutions to clients seeking a holistic approach to meeting brand strategy, experiential marketing and communications needs.
Executives
| Lawrence Vincent Wolfe |
officer: VP, Chief Operating Officer |
25 WEST 39TH STREET, 6TH FLOOR, C/O TROIKA MEDIA GROUP, INC., NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Carl Derek Mckinney |
officer: VP, General Counsel |
25 WEST 39TH STREET, 6TH FLOOR, C/O TROIKA MEDIA GROUP, INC., NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Kevin J Vanbeek |
10 percent owner |
149 ASH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748 |
| Jeffrey Scott Stein |
director |
601 TRAVIS, SUITE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| G Grant Lyon |
director |
410 N. 44TH STREET, SUITE 700, PHOENIX AZ 85008 |
| Peter Coates |
10 percent owner |
1715 NORTH GOWER STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90028 |
| Randall D Miles |
director |
1321 KING STREET, SUITE 1, BELLINGHAM WA 98226 |
| Erica Naidrich |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1715 NORTH GOWER STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90028 |
| Sabrina Yang |
director |
1715 NORTH GOWER STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90028 |
| John Belniak |
director |
1715 NORTH GOWER STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90028 |
| Sadig Toama |
director, officer: President |
605 THIRD AVEUE, NEW YORK NY 10158 |
| Thomas Marianacci |
10 percent owner, officer: CEO of Converge Direct LLC |
605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158 |
| Kyle Hill |
10 percent owner, officer: Pres. of Redeeem Acquisition |
1227 11TH STREET - UNIT A, SANTA MONICA CA 90401 |
| Martin Pompadur |
director |
|
| Kevin Dundas |
officer: CEO of Mission Subsidiary |
1715 NORTH GOWER STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90028 |
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