Companies Ranked by Business Predictability

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What is Predictability Rank?


GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy "buy good companies at fair prices" for the years 1998-2008. We focused on the companies that Warren Buffett likes, which are the companies that have predictable and proven earnings. For details, go to: GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank.

From this study we have developed the concept of Predictability Rank of businesses. We have found strong correlations between the Predictability of Businesses and the long term return of stocks, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank

5-Star

4.5-Star

4 -Star

3.5-Star

3 -Star

2.5-Star

2 -Star

1-Star (non-predictable)

Average among all

Average Annualized Gain (Jan. 1998- Aug. 2008)

12.1%

10.6%

9.8%

9.3%

8.2%

7.3%

6.0%

1.1%

3.1%

% that are in loss with 10-year holding period

3%

10%

8%

9%

11%

18%

16%

45%

37%


We can clearly see that companies with higher Predictability Rank had much better stock performances. The possibility of losing money with long term holding period is also greatly reduced.

To see the current list of Highly Ranked Companies, please join us as a Premium Member.


Go To Page:      1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9      10   NEXT >>   LAST (Total: 18 Pages)
symbol CompanyPredictability 10-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%) 5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)12-M EBITDA Growth Rate (%) Market Cap ($mil)P/EPE/5-Y EBITDA Growth RateYield
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

27.3 26.725.85774.916.80.630
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

12 10.426.911635.722.42.151.8
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

12.1 9.413.23046.721.42.281.2
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

28.6 26.926.625284.318.10.670
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

11.7 10.129.312296.622.92.271.7
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch)

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

11.4 13.4-1.4991.321.31.591
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

9 7.59227.418.42.450
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

18.2 19.54.3808.737.21.910
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch)

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

8.3 9-1.525641.816.21.803.1
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

6.8 5.23.2231.825.24.853
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

14.3 9.124.714369.422.82.510.5
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch)

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

28.9 40-2.9252.211.40.280
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

12.8 12.832.33086.9201.560
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

39.7 3431.322160.326.90.790
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

16.7 16.622.210629.423.21.400
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

10 9.811.27715.216.71.702.1
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

8.7 813.53699224.73.091.2
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

12.7 12.612.215635.217.71.400
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch)

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

11.3 7.8-453.31009.6324.100
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

13.9 12.411.91706914.21.152.3
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

15.5 14.316.416134.812.30.863.7
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

10.4 7.812.573438.414.61.872.4
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch)

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

22.3 23.5-19.8911.824.61.050
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

21.9 18.714.24429.122.81.221.1
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

15.2 13.89.4289.129.22.122
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch)

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

15.6 13.6-16.68018.9151.100.8
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

14.3 13.116.19061.713.71.051.5
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

15.8 153.69225.314.80.990
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

7.9 8.36.3679818.12.182.4
Premium Member Only
  • Currently /5
Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star

Back Testing (Jan. 1998 - Aug. 2008) Results:

Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1%/year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%.

Top Ranked Predictable Companies & What is Predictability Rank?

11 14.142.2545.15.80.412.4

Go To Page:      1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9      10   NEXT >>   LAST (Total: 18 Pages)

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