France Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns

Country: France (updated daily) check out Global Overview for detailed methodology.

Ratio of total market cap over GDP: Maximum - 182%; Minimum - 52%; current - 91%
Expected future annual return: 2.5%

ETF Used for dividend yield: EWQ (Yield=2.01%)
Market Index used: CAC 40
Current Annual GDP: $3,054 billion US dollars or 2,229 in billions of national currency (GDP in Local Current Prices Annual Growth=1.39%)
Data since year 1990

France Historical GDP Growth

Historical GDP of France in billions of national currency. The GDP in local current prices has grown at the annual rate of 1.39% over the past 8 years. Please note this growth rate includes the effect of price inflation and it is NOT the real GDP growth rate. Current Annual GDP: $3,054 billion US dollars or 2,229 in billions of national currency.

Historical Stock Market Cap

Historical total market of France in billions of national currency. This value is normalized using the data published by WorldBank. CAC 40 is used for the normalization. Use CAC 40 as index, data goes back to 1990. Earliest quarterly GDP data goes back to 1949, in Euros.

Historical Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP (%)

The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for France is 91%. The historical high was 182%; the historical low was 52%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the historical mean of 87% over the next 8 years, the contribution to expected annual return is -0.9%. This is the detailed historical chart of the ratio.

Conclusion

The stock market of France is expected to return 2.5% a year for the coming years. This is from the contribution of economic growth in local current prices: 1.39%, Dividend Yield: 2.01% and valuation reverse to the mean -0.9%.

This is the projected return of the stock market in France relative to other countries. Click on each bar in the chart to go to other countries:


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