Model Portfolios
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Can we invest based on the
gurus' recent
stock picks and
holdings? What kind of returns can we expect if we invest based on the
consensus picks of gurus or the
bargain candidates and the stocks many of them hold? What kind of returns can we expect if we buy
the top-ranked stocks?
In order to find out the answers to these questions, we have constructed a few model portfolios based on different criteria. Click on the charts to find out the details and holdings for each of them.
Guru Strategies:
All numbers do not include dividends. Annualized_*YR is the average annualized total return over certain years. The Since Inception return is the cumulative return since inception date.
| Year | S&P 500 | Most Broadly Held Portfolio |
Most Weighted Portfolio |
Consensus Picks Portfolio |
Guru Bargains Portfolio |
|---|
| 2006 | 13.62 |
15.18% |
21.39% |
|
|
| 2007 | 4.24 |
-5.47% |
-1.67% |
9.75% |
16.18% |
| 2008 | -38.91 |
-29.98% |
-34.17% |
-45.7% |
-49.14% |
| 2009 | 24.71 |
30.7% |
41.53% |
48.06% |
34.41% |
| 2010 | 11.65 |
14.63% |
15.36% |
6.03% |
15.35% |
| 2011 | -0 |
0.54% |
-15.76% |
-8.01% |
-23.79% |
| 2012 | 11.52 |
16.99% |
2.83% |
13.65% |
18.56% |
| 2013 | 31.8 |
30.85% |
38.37% |
58.33% |
47.65% |
| 2014 | 11.39 |
12.3% |
13.77% |
-1.86% |
-3.38% |
| 2015 | -0.73 |
6.07% |
-3.32% |
-3.22% |
-34.13% |
| 2016 | 9.54 |
9.3% |
7.91% |
2.81% |
25.8% |
| 2017 | 19.42 |
23.8% |
16.94% |
20.92% |
21.16% |
| 2018 | -6.24 |
-4.55% |
-8.51% |
-25.23% |
-20.86% |
| 2019 | 5.26 |
18.66% |
13.66% |
10.59% |
9.04% |
| Annualized_1YR | -6.84 |
5.73% |
-5.37% |
-16.57% |
-17.39% |
| Annualized_3YR | 11.41 |
17.28% |
12.15% |
3.82% |
14.74% |
| Annualized_5YR | 7.61 |
13.31% |
8.13% |
-0.8% |
-3.23% |
| Annualized_10YR | 12.23 |
16.16% |
11.88% |
10.22% |
6.65% |
| Since_Inception | |
220.92% |
121.95% |
51.2% |
2.31% |
| Screener Links | Screener Here | Screener Here | Screener Here | Screener Here |
|---|
Value Strategies:
All numbers do not include dividends. Annualized_*YR is the average annualized total return over certain years. The Since Inception return is the cumulative return since inception date.
Value Strategies:
All numbers do not include dividends. Annualized_*YR is the average annualized total return over certain years. The Since Inception return is the cumulative return since inception date.
Top 25 stocks from the Buffett-Munger Screener, 1. These companies are undervalued based pe/g ratio. The portfolio consists of the top 25 most undervalued on the day of rebalance. GuruFocus Founder Dr. Charlie Tian has a large portion of his investments in this portfolio.
Top 25 Undervalued Predictable Companies screened from here. These companies have the best predictabilities, and their stock prices are undervalued as measured by discounted cash flow model or discounted earning model.
Top 25 Historical Low P/S Ratio Companies. These companies have been very predictable in their business operations. Their sales and earnings have consistently grown for at least the past decade. However the price/sales (P/S) ratio of each of these companies is less than 30% above its historical low. The current list of stocks that meet this criteria can be found here.
Top 25 Historical Low P/B Ratio Companies. These companies have been very predictable in their business operations. Their sales and earnings have consistently grown for at least the past decade. However the price/book (P/B) ratios of each of these companies is less than 30% above its historical low. . The current list of stocks that meet this criteria can be found here.
These are the most broadly held 25 stocks in Gurus' holdings. The rank is based on the number of the gurus who hold the stock. All other things being equal, the stocks that the gurus hold in higher concentrations (percentage of portfolio) are ranked higher. The portfolio is updated every 12 months. The current list of stocks that meet this criteria can be found here
These are the 25 stocks with the most heavily weighted positions among the combined holdings of the Gurus. The rank is based on the combined positions of the stocks in the Gurus holdings. For instance: if Guru A holds 17% of WMT in his holding, and Guru B holds 5%, and Guru C holds 4%,the combined weighting is defined as 17+5+4=26. The portfolio is updated every 12 months. The current list of stocks that meet this criteria can be found here
These are the top 25 consensus picks of the Gurus during the most recent quarter. The rank is based on the number of the gurus who bought the stock. All other things being equal, the stocks that the gurus bought in higher concentrations (percentage of portfolio) are ranked higher. The portfolio is updated every 12 months. The current list of stocks that meet this criteria can be found here
Guru Bargains Portfolio: top 25 bargains on the day of portfolio update
Top 25 portfolio from Guru Bargains at the time of rebalance. The current list of stocks that meet this criteria can be found here
Top 25 Historical High P/S Ratio Companies. These companies have predictable business, but traded at historical high P/S ratios. The purpose of
this portfolio is to show that over-valued stocks appreciate less than the undervalued ones.
For details, see New Model Portfolios: Overvalued Stocks
Top 25 Overvalued Predictable Companies. These companies have predictable business, but are over valued as measured by DCF model. The purpose of
this portfolio is to show that over-valued stocks appreciate less than the undervalued ones.
For details, see New Model Portfolios: Overvalued Stocks
If one runs a portfolio by being long on the undervalued stocks and being short the same amount of overvalued stocks, the performance of the portfolio will be decided by the difference in the performances of the undervalued stocks and overvalued stocks. The shorted stocks serve as the market hedge, and the portfolio will be market neutral. The performances of the general market will not affect the returns of the portfolio.
The performance of this hedged portfolio is from the relative performances of the model portfolios of Undervalued Predictable Companies to Overvalued Predictable Companies.
If one runs a portfolio by being long on the undervalued stocks and being short the same amount of overvalued stocks, the performance of the portfolio will be decided by the difference in the performances of the undervalued stocks and overvalued stocks. The shorted stocks serve as the market hedge, and the portfolio will be market neutral. The performances of the general market will not affect the returns of the portfolio.
The performance of this hedged portfolio is from the relative performances of the model portfolios of historical low P/S ratios to the historical high P/S ratios.
Top 25 CEO Buys
Top 25 CFO Buys
Top 25 Insider Cluster Buys
Top 25 CEO Sales
Top 25 CFO Sales
Top 25 Insider Cluster Sales
Buffett-Munger Screener top 25, Chinese/Hongkong Stocks
Buffett-Munger Screener top 25, Stocks Traded in Europe
Buffett-Munger Screener top 25, Stocks Traded in CanadaFor questions about how the Model Portfolios were constructed, please see the articles listed on the left side of the menu.
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