What is Asiainfo-Linkage, Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Software - Application subindustry, Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Software Industry
For the Software industry and Technology sector, Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Asiainfo-Linkage, Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Asiainfo-Linkage, (FRA:AFB) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Asiainfo-Linkage, Inc, a Delaware corporation, commenced operations in the United States in 1993. The Company is a provider of telecommunications software solutions and information technology, or IT, related services in China. It also provides variety of services including business operational consulting service, IT architecture planning service, system integration services based on its own products and other third party software and hardware, change of request implementation, maintenance on customer premise and management services. The Company's suite of innovative solutions includes business and operation support systems, network infrastructure solutions, and service application solutions. The products and services it offers to the telecommunications industry include various software product suites, most of which are designed with open architecture to facilitate further development and customization for specific purposes. The Company's core BSS/OSS offering primarily includes convergent billing solutions, CRM and BI systems. It also provides software enhancement and maintenance services for the systems it develop, as well as system integration and other value-added IT consulting and planning services. Its OSS Package is a highly comprehensive and intelligent service fulfilment framework based on OSS fulfilment domain definition in eTOM model and OSS specifications of telecom operators. In OSS Package, process analysis methodology and project implementation methodology enables a rapid implementation of telecom service fulfilment system. It provides process analysis methodology, project implementation methodology, inventory data model, interface integration framework and built-in inventory management templates. Its network management solutions include network access and backbone infrastructure planning, design and implementation for telecommunications and Internet service providers. These services include technical training for its customers, as well as professional maintenance and support services. The Company designs and provides a series of service applications that enable telecommunications operators and service providers to offer value-added services, such as Short Message Service, or SMS, mobile email, mobile entertainment and mobile e-commerce. These applications often involve licensed third-party software that it's customizes or integrate with its proprietary software to provide individualized solutions. The Company's software and services enable its customers to build, maintain, operate, manage and improve their communications infrastructure. Its largest customers are the major telecommunications carriers in China and their provincial subsidiaries, including China Mobile Communications Corporation, or China Mobile, China United Telecommunications Corporation, or China Unicom, and China Telecommunications Corporation, or China Telecom. The Company relies on its own sales force to market and sell its products and services
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