Asiainfo-Linkage, (FRA:AFB) Predictability Rank

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What is Asiainfo-Linkage, Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Asiainfo-Linkage, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Asiainfo-Linkage, (FRA:AFB) Business Description

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Traded in Other Exchanges

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Address

Website

http://www.asiainfo-linkage.com

Asiainfo-Linkage, Inc, a Delaware corporation, commenced operations in the United States in 1993. The Company is a provider of telecommunications software solutions and information technology, or IT, related services in China. It also provides variety of services including business operational consulting service, IT architecture planning service, system integration services based on its own products and other third party software and hardware, change of request implementation, maintenance on customer premise and management services. The Company's suite of innovative solutions includes business and operation support systems, network infrastructure solutions, and service application solutions. The products and services it offers to the telecommunications industry include various software product suites, most of which are designed with open architecture to facilitate further development and customization for specific purposes. The Company's core BSS/OSS offering primarily includes convergent billing solutions, CRM and BI systems. It also provides software enhancement and maintenance services for the systems it develop, as well as system integration and other value-added IT consulting and planning services. Its OSS Package is a highly comprehensive and intelligent service fulfilment framework based on OSS fulfilment domain definition in eTOM model and OSS specifications of telecom operators. In OSS Package, process analysis methodology and project implementation methodology enables a rapid implementation of telecom service fulfilment system. It provides process analysis methodology, project implementation methodology, inventory data model, interface integration framework and built-in inventory management templates. Its network management solutions include network access and backbone infrastructure planning, design and implementation for telecommunications and Internet service providers. These services include technical training for its customers, as well as professional maintenance and support services. The Company designs and provides a series of service applications that enable telecommunications operators and service providers to offer value-added services, such as Short Message Service, or SMS, mobile email, mobile entertainment and mobile e-commerce. These applications often involve licensed third-party software that it's customizes or integrate with its proprietary software to provide individualized solutions. The Company's software and services enable its customers to build, maintain, operate, manage and improve their communications infrastructure. Its largest customers are the major telecommunications carriers in China and their provincial subsidiaries, including China Mobile Communications Corporation, or China Mobile, China United Telecommunications Corporation, or China Unicom, and China Telecommunications Corporation, or China Telecom. The Company relies on its own sales force to market and sell its products and services