Bakkt Holdings (Bakkt Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Bakkt Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bakkt Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bakkt Holdings (Bakkt Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Bakkt Holdings Inc (NYSE:BKKT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10000 Avalon Boulevard, Suite 1000, Alpharetta, GA, USA, 30009

Website

https://www.bakkt.com

Bakkt Holdings Inc operates technology that connects the digital economy by offering a platform for crypto and redeeming loyalty points. Its institutional-grade technology platform provides a custody solution that caters to more experienced market participants to store crypto and provides consumers, businesses, and institutions with the ability to buy, sell and store crypto in a simple, intuitive digital experience accessed via application programming interfaces (APIs) or embedded web experience, and Loyalty offers a full spectrum of content that clients can make available to its customers when redeeming loyalty currencies. It generates revenue in the form of Subscription and service and Transaction revenue.

Executives

Vpc Impact Acquisition Holdings Sponsor, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	150 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 5200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Sean Roberts Collins	director	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 10000 AVALON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Marc D'annunzio	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 10000 AVALON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Mark Sonbolian Elliot	officer: Chief Sales & Mktg Officer	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS INC., 10000 AVALON BLVD., SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Michael Gavin Constantine	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 10000 AVALON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Karen Alexander	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 10000 AVALON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTE GA 30009
Charles Goodroe	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS INC., 10000 AVALON BLVD., SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Meredith Spatz	officer: Chief Customer Officer	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS INC., 10000 AVALON BLVD., SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
De'ana Dow	director	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 10000 AVALON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Jill Simeone	director	C/O ETSY, 117 ADAMS STREET, BROOKLYN NY 11201
Nancy Gordon	officer: EVP Loyalty Rewards & Payments	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 5500 WINDWARD PKWY., SUITE 450, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Andrew A Main	director	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 10000 AVALON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Daniel O'prey	officer: EVP, Digital Assets	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 10000 AVALON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Michael Leroy Lewis	officer: EVP Engineering & Operations	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 10000 AVALON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, ALPHARETTA GA 30009
Matthew Alan Johnson	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O BAKKT HOLDINGS, INC., 5500 WINDWARD PKWY., SUITE 450, ALPHARETTA GA 30005