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TRW Automotive Holdings (FRA:TQT) Predictability Rank


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What is TRW Automotive Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TRW Automotive Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

TRW Automotive Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TRW Automotive Holdings (FRA:TQT) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » TRW Automotive Holdings Corp (FRA:TQT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:600741 TSE:5802 LKQ TSE:7259 XPAR:FR BWA TSE:7276 SZSE:002602 SHSE:600660 LEA ALV GNTX XTER:SHA TSX:MG XPAR:EO WBC SZSE:002555 BOM:500530 XTER:HLE MIL:PIRC
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.trw.com
TRW Automotive Holdings Corp is a Delaware corporation formed in 2002. The Company is a supplier of automotive systems, modules and components to automotive original equipment manufacturers and related aftermarkets. It conducts substantially all of its operations through subsidiaries. These operations encompass the design, manufacture and sale of active and passive safety related products and systems. Active safety related products and systems principally refer to vehicle dynamic controls (braking and steering) and electronics (driver assistance systems), and passive safety related products and systems principally refer to occupant restraints (airbags and seat belts) and electronics (airbag electronic control units, and crash and occupant weight sensors). It operates its business in four segments: Chassis Systems, Occupant Safety Systems, Electronics and Automotive Components. The Chassis Systems segment focuses on the design, manufacture and sale of products and systems relating to braking, steering, modules, and linkage and suspension. It sells its Chassis Systems products and systems to OEMs and other Tier 1 suppliers. The Occupant Safety Systems segment focuses on the design, manufacture and sale of products and systems relating to airbags, seat belts, and steering wheels. It sells its Occupant Safety Systems products and systems to OEMs and other Tier 1 suppliers. It also sells these products and systems to OEM service organizations. The Electronics segment focuses on the design, manufacture and sale of electronics components and systems in the areas of safety, chassis, radio frequency, powertrain, and driver assistance systems, including cameras and radars. It sells its Electronics products and systems to OEMs and to its Chassis Systems segment (braking and steering applications). It also sells these products and systems to OEM service organizations. The Automotive Components segment focuses on the design, manufacture and sale of body controls, engine valves, and engineered fasteners and components. It sells its Automotive Components products to OEMs and other Tier 1 suppliers, and to certain non-automotive markets and customers. It also sells these products to OEM service organizations. In addition, it sells some engine valve and body control products to independent distributors for the automotive aftermarket. The Company's principal competitors include Advics, Bosch, Continental, JTEKT, Nexteer and ZF in the Chassis Systems segment; Autoliv, Key Safety, and Takata in the Occupant Safety Systems segment; Autoliv, Bosch, Continental, Delphi, Denso, and Magna in the Electronics segment; and Delphi, Eaton, ITW, Kostal, Nifco, Raymond, Tokai Rika, and Valeo in the Automotive Components segment. Its operations are subject to a variety of federal, state, local and international laws and regulations which may have a direct or indirect effect on its business.

TRW Automotive Holdings (FRA:TQT) Headlines

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