(GuruFocus, October 28, 2009) The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index climbed 1 percent from the prior month, seasonally adjusted, after a 1.2 percent increase in July, the group said today in New York. From a year earlier, the gauge fell 11.3 percent, less than forecast.
To make sense of it, people go to the source, the designer of index, Professor Robert Shiller. When asked whether te latest price climb really good news, Shiller said “I don’t know”.
A Goldman Sachs analyst was cited to have called the climb a false bottom and Shiller was quick to agree with the negative opinion.
To his credit, Shiller did say that the recent strength is due to more than the stimulus, while both the Bloomberg and FBN people are eager to label the strength some kind of “false positive”.
An momentum in general is what Robert Shiller relies on to predict the future direction. When the price momentum changes so rapidly, he is perplexed.
In analogy, Robert Shiller thinks the home price is like the stock market which had a speculative run of late, and the inference is that home price may also hit a resistance level.
Maybe the momentum has indeed changed, but Shiller still lives in the dark ages and refuses to accept things could actually turn better.
The country can have use some good news.
Robert Shiller on Bloomberg
Robert Shiller on Foxbusiness
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To make sense of it, people go to the source, the designer of index, Professor Robert Shiller. When asked whether te latest price climb really good news, Shiller said “I don’t know”.
A Goldman Sachs analyst was cited to have called the climb a false bottom and Shiller was quick to agree with the negative opinion.
To his credit, Shiller did say that the recent strength is due to more than the stimulus, while both the Bloomberg and FBN people are eager to label the strength some kind of “false positive”.
An momentum in general is what Robert Shiller relies on to predict the future direction. When the price momentum changes so rapidly, he is perplexed.
In analogy, Robert Shiller thinks the home price is like the stock market which had a speculative run of late, and the inference is that home price may also hit a resistance level.
Maybe the momentum has indeed changed, but Shiller still lives in the dark ages and refuses to accept things could actually turn better.
The country can have use some good news.
Robert Shiller on Bloomberg
Robert Shiller on Foxbusiness
(click here if you don't see the video player)
