The Return of the Railroads: CSX's Bullish Tone Speaks Well For The Greenbrier Companies

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Nov 02, 2010
For all the talk about greener transportation initiatives, the answer may actually lie not in a new-fangled venture, but in a network that’s more than 200 years old.


I’m talking about the rail system – a $78 billion per year industry.


And right off the bat, it boasts three major advantages over the trucking and shipping industries:


  • It’s cheaper.
  • It has higher profit margins.
  • It’s on the verge of a major comeback, with railroad companies having plowed more than $42 billion since 2008 to upgrade their operations and technology.
And if you’re looking for a system that’s economical as well as ecological, look no further than the railroads. Trains are now more fuel-efficient than hybrid cars, able to travel huge distances on just one gallon, and can haul more cargo than 300 trucks.


The industry has also drawn the attention of the world’s greatest value investor…


Follow the Lead of the World’s Greatest Investor


Warren Buffett has poured billions into the railroad industry over the last several years. Citing railways’ cost-effective and environmentally friendly operations, he referred to his investment as “a bet on the country…”


“I believe that this country will prosper and you’ll have more people moving more goods 10, 20, 30 years from now and the rails should benefit,” he said in an interview last fall. It was around the same time that Buffett went “all in” and bought one of the nation’s largest railroads for $34 billion.


Not surprisingly, less than a year later, the railway business started to pick up. By August 2010, average carload volumes reached a two-year high. And weekly intermodal traffic – the interchange of cargo from train to ship or truck – is up 20% year-over-year.


Then on October 13, the overall industry nudged up 4%. And leading the charge was a Jacksonville railroad firm whose tracks cover more than two-thirds of the United States…


Strong Business Growth and Lower Costs Give CSX Corp a 43% Income Boost


CSX Corporation‘s (CSX, Financial) shares are up to $61.67 (as of November 1) – an increase of 7.7% since it released its third quarter results on October 12. And up 44% from just one year ago.


As the first railroad company to announce earnings, CSX often sets the tone for the rest of the industry. And in this case, it’s great news, since the company’s quarterly net income rose by 43%.


The extra cash is allowing CSX to prepare for even more growth. By the end of 2011, it will add 5,000 more employees. It will also repurchase $646 million in shares and is set to increase its dividend.


But CSX isn’t the only rail company enjoying a steady rise in business. Strong sales have lifted shares of one freight car manufacturer by 18% to a two-year high…


Greenbrier’s Business Explodes as Railways Rally


Headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon, The Greenbrier Companies (GBX, Financial) have built and sold railcars for four decades.


However, the recession hit the transportation sector harder than most others and by early 2009, Greenbrier’s orders had slumped to their lowest level since the 1980s. And a significant decrease in cargo resulted in a $30 million revenue loss.


But thanks to a rebounding economy, business has risen in 2010. As of October, weekly rail volume had increased by 11.5% year-over-year, estimated at 34.8 billion ton-miles.


In addition, on August 25, Greenbrier also announced that it had received orders for more than 1,700 new units. The deal, worth $130 million, will allow the firm to hire 260 new workers. But it was just the beginning…


Greenbrier followed that up on September 27 by announcing another set of orders, this time worth $200 million. Shares have soared by 85.5% since the two announcements. But seeing as Greenbrier’s success depends on railroads like CSX, it’s really great news for the industry as a whole…


As the Economy Recovers, the Railroad Industry Will Tag Along for the Ride


The future is looking brighter for the railroad industry.


Shipments of agricultural equipment, metal, and energy products are nearing pre-recession levels. Motor vehicle shipments are up to 813,863 so far this year, compared with 617,171 a year ago. And strong demand for coal is driving industrial business, too.


As a result, rail car orders are up. As the economy recovers, the railroad industry actually finds itself in a better position. Rail is by far the cheapest and most reliable option when it comes to transporting goods. Yet because operating costs are so low, the industry averages some of the highest profits.


Over the next few years, Buffett’s “bet on the country” should really pay off… both for him and for investors smart enough to follow his trail.


Good investing,


Alexander Moschina

http://www.investmentu.com/