For the most part, stocks have not been cheap for a long while now.
I don't know if unrest in the Middle East will cause oil to skyrocket, sending the economy spiriling down. I do know the broad stock market has been ripe for a correction, regardless of geopolitical events.
I've never shorted any stock or market index in my life. It's just not my game. But people who will go down that road -- Fred Hickey comes to mind -- say shorting makes no sense with the Fed creating money out of thin air.
And while I love seeing my portfolio perform nicely, the fact is that I've had the wind at my back in the form of this "quantitative easing" nonsense. It will be interesting to see what happens when QE2 supposedly ends in June. Will we see a QE3?
I guess being a value guy makes me, more or less, a contrarian by defintion.
So when the market was doing well, I naturally saw my cash balance increase. This is the result of seeing Geeknet (GKNT) double in price, and me selling half my stake. Seeing King Pharmaceuticals get bought for cash by Pfizer. Selling my BCE stake. And, if the deal goes through, seeing XETA Technologies (XETA) get purchased for cash.
I'd love to put this cash to work, and I've got a list of candidates, but nothing is screaming at me to buy here.
So I've got these cash -- earning a negative real interest rate -- and, of couse, I've got my gold and gold mining stocks.
As for the rest of the portfolio -- the majority of which is in stocks -- I'm content to hold. But make no mistake, any severe market correction or repeat of the Panic of 2008, will see my stocks get clobbered.
At least for the short to intermediate term.
My rule is not to have money in the stock market that isn't there for the long term. And that's 10 years or more for me.
So with all the noise in the media about the Middle East, and oil, and whatever else will be popping up, this is the time when doing nothing seem prudent.
I don't know if unrest in the Middle East will cause oil to skyrocket, sending the economy spiriling down. I do know the broad stock market has been ripe for a correction, regardless of geopolitical events.
I've never shorted any stock or market index in my life. It's just not my game. But people who will go down that road -- Fred Hickey comes to mind -- say shorting makes no sense with the Fed creating money out of thin air.
And while I love seeing my portfolio perform nicely, the fact is that I've had the wind at my back in the form of this "quantitative easing" nonsense. It will be interesting to see what happens when QE2 supposedly ends in June. Will we see a QE3?
I guess being a value guy makes me, more or less, a contrarian by defintion.
So when the market was doing well, I naturally saw my cash balance increase. This is the result of seeing Geeknet (GKNT) double in price, and me selling half my stake. Seeing King Pharmaceuticals get bought for cash by Pfizer. Selling my BCE stake. And, if the deal goes through, seeing XETA Technologies (XETA) get purchased for cash.
I'd love to put this cash to work, and I've got a list of candidates, but nothing is screaming at me to buy here.
So I've got these cash -- earning a negative real interest rate -- and, of couse, I've got my gold and gold mining stocks.
As for the rest of the portfolio -- the majority of which is in stocks -- I'm content to hold. But make no mistake, any severe market correction or repeat of the Panic of 2008, will see my stocks get clobbered.
At least for the short to intermediate term.
My rule is not to have money in the stock market that isn't there for the long term. And that's 10 years or more for me.
So with all the noise in the media about the Middle East, and oil, and whatever else will be popping up, this is the time when doing nothing seem prudent.
