Howard Marks: Down to the Wire

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Jul 25, 2011
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Here are the elements of the plot: A problem everyone's aware of. If it isn't resolved, a shutdown with unspecified but possibly disastrous consequences. A deadline which seems indispensable, since in its absence it appears nothing would be done. And despite the presence of the oncoming freight train, movement toward a solution is deterred by highly entrenched positions. It's truly white-knuckle time, and if the progress toward a solution continues to lag, the things that must happen won't.


I'm not talking about the nearly concluded drama at the National Football League, where failure to reach a labor settlement for just a few more days would have caused significant changes in the schedule for the coming year, upsetting the flow of wealth to owners and players and depriving fans of the game they love. I'm talking about the down-to-the-wire battle over the US debt ceiling. I've decided to devote a memo to the debt issue and its significance. I especially hope it'll be helpful to our non-US clients, for whom the lack of progress to date must be absolutely incomprehensible.


Interestingly, the immediate debt crisis is somewhat artificial. It is occasioned now only because of our debt ceiling, which currently limits the net debt of the United States to $14.29 trillion. Such ceilings are far from the norm worldwide. Many other nations seem to function no worse without them.


Read the complete letter.