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RIMM: 40% growth in subscriber base in Q2

September 23, 2011 | About:
Research in Motion (RIMM) has received a lot of arguments whether it is the value play, when the $80 billion company in 2008 becomes just a little over $11 billion today. The largest shareholders and co-CEOs, Jim Balsillie, Mike Lazaridis, have lost the status as billionaires from the stock this year due to the plunge in the share price.

In September, RIMM has held the conference call for its Q2 2012 earnings; Jim still showed the growth in the company. It has shipped around 10.6 million smart phones in the Q2 and the subscriber base of the Blackberry is now over 70 million. With the operating performance of $4.2 billion in revenue including more than $1 billion in service revenue, that reflects more than 40% growth in the subscriber base over the past year.

One of the new product drives growth of RIMM across the regions are Blackberry 7. The early results from Blackberry 7 are quite strong and RIMM is rolling these devices out to all the RIMM’s network, its full network to global partners including broadening the launches in its strongest global regions. Jim expected that the guidance for sequential unit shipment increase of 27% to 37% in Q3. For its playbook as the first tablet, Mike stressed on the unmatched security of the product. It was the first tablet certified for deployment within US Federal Government agencies and the Australian Federal Government. I think it is actually the key and the competitive advantage of RIMM with the top security of its server. Whether it can be matched by iPad or other tablets in terms of security, it would affect its share price over the long run and it is still very questionable.

The financial result for the second quarter has come with the net income was $329 million or $0.63 per fully diluted share, which includes the $118 million associated with the cost optimization program. Excluding the charges, the EPS would rise to $0.8 per fully diluted share. During Q2, RIMM was part of the group of companies which bid successfully for Nortel patent portfolio. That has caused that large cash outflow in the quarter with the investment of $780 million from patent acquisition. Nevertheless, RIMM still got $1.4 billion sitting on its cash with no interest-bearing debt on its liabilities side.

Looking at the free cash flow of RIMM over the last 10 years, it still keeps increasing rapidly with some fluctuations, and now the TTM (including the most recent Q2) has stayed with $1.8 billion, and the book value per share rose even more rapid rate of $1.85/share in 2002 to $16.6/share at the end of fiscal year 2010 and at nearly $19 TTM.

Whether RIMM is the good stock to buy in today? With strong balance sheet, still got growth in its subscriber base, creating a lot of cash flows, any value investors would like any stock with those fundamentals. However, it is involved with technology, fast changing, and with new trend of tablet, competitors has come up with new products of consumer-favor stylish way such as iPad, Galaxy etc. The situation can change in technology field just over night. If RIMM sticks to its main business competitive advantage, which is security system to be unmatched by any competitors, it would be very well-served to its shareholders over the long term.

About the author:

Money manager into global equities, especially with US and Vietnam markets. CFA level 3 candidate. Lecturer for Stalla - CFA course in Vietnam

Visit Anh Hoang's Website

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Rating: 3.4/5 (32 votes)

Comments

chuckc
Chuckc - 1 year ago

Finally a sensible discussion on RIMM. Thank you, points well made.
tkervin
Tkervin - 1 year ago
On the other hand.....

From Bloomberg........

"Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM)’s sales in the U.S. fell by 50 percent last quarter, dragging total revenue lower, as American consumers abandoned older BlackBerry phone models for Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhones.

Revenue from the U.S. dropped to $1.11 billion from $2.22 billion a year earlier, overshadowing gains in Canada and other markets, according to a filing released yesterday after the company reported earnings last week."

[www.bloomberg.com]

RIM's tablet has seen a less than stellar rollout. Reminds me a bit of Zune.

In most companies looking back ten or fifteen years for a valuation matrix is critical. In tech firms it can be very, very dangerous. I have seen many tech firms come and go since the 1960's and with Apple being a notable exception, when they start on the glide path of competitive disadvantage........they fade away or are bought out by stronger players.

When your global market share drops from 19% to 12% in a single year......you are in deep, deep trouble. What you did five or ten years ago is completely, totally beside the point.

All investments are a combination of risk vs. potential reward leavened with a large dollop of margin of safety.

In a market where strong wide moat firms are being sold off and are trading at very attractive multiples, (see Mr. Carnevale's most excellent work for many fine examples), I would allocate my money elsewhere. That being said a small speculative position, similar to what I have in Ford, might have an appeal to many.

On the other hand, some major market players on the value side have made recent forays into RIMM ownership with non-trivial positions. It will be very interesting to see if they double down.........or cut their losses.



Jonathan Poland
Jonathan Poland - 1 year ago
What will be interesting to see is if the stock continues to trade at 5 times earnings. I mean if RIMM earns $4.50+ next year and the stock stays at these levels, I would be very surprised.
ken_hoang
Ken_hoang premium member - 1 year ago
@ Chuckc: Thanks

@ Tkervin: For AAPL stock for example, people are paying quite high premium compared if they pay for RIMM, that is true in terms of the market takeover of iPhone and iPad. Where competitive of RIMM is on the security system. Several people in business said it's not convenient to use iPhone, so they still switch back to BB for their work matter. It's still very unclear now.. so let's see

@ Johnathan: Yes, i would be quite surprised as well. But anything can happen to the stock price, and most of the time it's irrational. that's why we need to have patience.

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