The stock of Texas Instruments (NAS:TXN, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $190.27 per share and the market cap of $175.7 billion, Texas Instruments stock shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Texas Instruments is shown in the chart below.
Because Texas Instruments is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 1.6% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 5.63% annually over the next three to five years.
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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company’s financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Texas Instruments has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.07, which which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Semiconductors industry. The overall financial strength of Texas Instruments is 7 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Texas Instruments is fair. This is the debt and cash of Texas Instruments over the past years:
Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. Texas Instruments has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $15.4 billion and earnings of $6.6 a share. Its operating margin is 44.15%, which ranks better than 98% of the companies in Semiconductors industry. Overall, the profitability of Texas Instruments is ranked 9 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Texas Instruments over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company’s stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Texas Instruments is 1.6%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Semiconductors industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 3.4%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Semiconductors industry.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Texas Instruments’s return on invested capital is 53.82, and its cost of capital is 7.37. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Texas Instruments is shown below:
In summary, the stock of Texas Instruments (NAS:TXN, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Semiconductors industry. To learn more about Texas Instruments stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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