Gurus with Best Performance Year to Date

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Oct 13, 2011
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The list of Gurus with the most successful stock portfolios year to date is quite different than the one GuruFocus discussed last week, which tracked third-quarter performance only. Chuck Akre still ranks highest of all the mutual fund managers GuruFocus tracks. But one surprise was that Eddie Lampert did the best overall – his portfolio value increased 5.96%. Chase Coleman followed him with a 3.69% return. Warren Buffett, first for the third quarter, was No. 25 on the year-to-date list. Bruce Berkowitz was second to last with a 34.34% loss, besting only Ian Cumming, who suffered a 51.2% loss.


GuruFocus’ list measures stock performance only and does not include cash, bonds and other investments. It also assumes the portfolio remained static.


Eddie Lampert picked a group of winning stocks that were less sensitive to the year’s economic storms. His portfolio of 11 stocks did not see the swings to which such concentrated portfolios are susceptible. Major investments in retailers helped his returns. The Clothing & Accessories Index was the third best performing industry year to date, up 17.62%, and the Broadline Retailers Index was the second-best performing industry for the last three months, up 3.43%, according to BigCharts.com.


His top holding and 34% of his portfolio was Sears (SHLD, Financial). It edged down 4.94% year to date. AutoZone (AZO, Financial), his star stock, increased 20% year to date and 40.66% over the last year. For its fourth quarter, it reported its EPS increased 26.9% (its 11th consecutive quarter of EPS growth in excess of 20%) and domestic same-store sales increased 4.5%. Other top holdings include AutoNation Inc. (AN) (up 33% YTD), Gap Inc. (GPS) (down 19.38% YTD), and Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) (up 2.07% YTD).


Chase Coleman, founder of Tiger Global Management and intrepid investor in Internet stocks and dot-coms, is also a former tiger cub. He manages a portfolio of 40 stocks and has a stellar track record. It is reported that he returned at least 70% in 2010. The largest holding in his portfolio, Yandex N.V. (YNDX), something of a Russian version of Google (GOOG), dominated 64% of search engine traffic in Russia in 2010 and is the largest Internet company in Russia. Coleman lunged into the stock with 54,058,062 shares in the second quarter of 2011. The price is down 38.9% year to date.


His second-largest holding, Apple (AAPL, Financial), helped offset the loss, advancing 26.15% year to date. Coleman has held the stock since the second quarter of 2008. Other top holdings held positive year to date, including Viacom (VIA.B), Liberty Global (LBTYA), and Amazon.com (AMZN, Financial) (up 31.9% YTD). The only other under-performer was Netflix (NFLX, Financial), down 33.96% year to date.


Coleman is a fan of other Internet companies, such as Baidu Inc. (BIDU), MakeMyTrip Ltd. (MMYT), Google Inc. (GOOG), LinkedIn (LNKD), Youku.com (YOKU), and others. Institutional Investor reports that he also owns a large and lucrative stake in privately held Facebook.


The poorest performance year to date came from Ian Cumming, the chairman of Leucadia National (LUK), a publicly traded investment company akin to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B). Since 1978, their investment returns have compounded more than 20%. Thus far in 2011, his portfolio decreased in value 51.2%. But wide swings are not unusual for the company — last year it returned 59.1%.


The majority of the portfolio’s woes stem from its top holding, Jefferies Group Inc. (JEF), which dominates almost 91% of it. Jefferies Group and its subsidiaries, together, comprise a full-service investment bank and institutional securities firm focused on the middle market. Jefferies offers financial advisory, capital raising, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring services to small and mid-cap companies. Cumming is also director of Jefferies.


Cumming initially bought 4,265,800 shares of the company in the first quarter of 2008. In April 2008, he sold to Jefferies 10 million Leucadia common shares for 26,585,310 Jefferies common shares and $100 million in cash. He did not buy again until the fourth quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2011. As of June 30, he owns 54,506,024 shares.


Year to date, Jefferies Group’s stock price fell 52.3% to between $12 and $13. This did not seem to perturb Cumming, who took advantage of the low price to pile on 3.67% more shares on Sept. 22.


Both Jefferies’ revenue and EBITDA increased each year from 2008 to 2010. Free cash flow has not been positive since 2005 and losses have deepened each of the last three years. In a brief section on Jefferies in his 2010 shareholder letter Cummings said, “In the last few years Jefferies has expanded across the globe and hired, from other similar institutions, talented people or groups thereof, moving from a boutique firm to a worldwide full-service investment bank. Quite an amazing feat in a challenging economy!”


Just above Cummings was Bruce Berkowitz, manager of Fairholme Capital Management. His fund value declined 34.34% due to disappointing performance of his numerous financial stocks.


Guru Name Type YTD Performance (%)
Edward Lampert h 5.96%
Chase Coleman h 3.69%
Michael Price h 2.64%
Edward Owens F 2.58%
Chuck Akre m 2.03%
Donald Yacktman m 0.72%
Ruane Cunniff m 0.65%
Jeremy Grantham m 0.33%
Tom Russo h 0.20%
Steven Romick F -0.01%
Jeff Auxier m -1.08%
Glenn Greenberg h -1.47%
Prem Watsa i -2.03%
Michael Dell h -2.96%
John Hussman m -3.30%
Bill Nygren F -3.58%
Tweedy Browne m -3.87%
Carl Icahn h -4.14%
Bill Gates i -4.65%
Bill Frels m -4.71%
Wallace Weitz m -5.23%
Mason Hawkins m -5.44%
Warren Buffett i -6.13%
Jean-Marie Eveillard m -6.77%
James Barrow m -6.90%
Joel Greenblatt h -6.98%
David Winters m -7.13%
PRIMECAP Management m -7.57%
Mark Hillman m -7.77%
Ron Baron m -7.91%
Andreas Halvorsen h -8.01%
Diamond Hill Capital m -8.14%
Steve Mandel h -8.43%
Chris Davis m -8.75%
John Buckingham m -9.14%
Jim Simons h -9.15%
Robert Bruce m -9.16%
John Griffin h -9.32%
First Pacific Advisors m -9.39%
Brian Rogers F -9.45%
Pioneer Investments m -9.48%
David Einhorn h -9.98%
Lee Ainslie h -10.00%
Arnold Van Den Berg F -10.11%
Murray Stahl m -10.13%
Howard Marks -10.54%
Richard Aster Jr m -10.81%
Robert Olstein m -10.83%
Ronald Muhlenkamp m -10.89%
Manning & Napier Advisors, Inc h -11.19%
Julian Robertson h -11.44%
Daniel Loeb h -11.68%
Columbia Wanger m -11.92%
Irving Kahn h -12.08%
David Swensen i -12.22%
Paul Tudor Jones h -12.26%
Dodge & Cox m -12.34%
Tom Gayner i -12.71%
Seth Klarman h -12.72%
Donald Smith m -12.80%
John Keeley m -13.26%
Steven Cohen h -13.37%
Richard Pzena h -13.54%
Larry Robbins h -13.59%
Eric Mindich h -13.67%
Robert Rodriguez F -13.95%
Zeke Ashton h -14.03%
Francis Chou m -14.14%
Chuck Royce m -14.59%
Mario Gabelli m -14.88%
Bill Ackman h -15.35%
George Soros h -15.54%
Westport Asset Management m -15.76%
Bruce Kovner h -15.88%
Charles Brandes m -16.05%
Mohnish Pabrai h -16.47%
RS Investment Management m -16.56%
John Rogers m -16.78%
David Dreman m -16.92%
Richard Snow m -17.32%
David Williams F -17.34%
Private Capital h -17.35%
Louis Moore Bacon h -18.45%
David Tepper h -18.76%
NWQ Managers m -19.66%
Richard Perry h -19.78%
Whitney Tilson h -20.80%
Kenneth Fisher m -21.32%
David Nierenberg h -21.34%
Arnold Schneider m -22.44%
Ken Heebner m -22.56%
Third Avenue Management m -22.66%
John Paulson h -22.70%
T Boone Pickens h -23.21%
Wilbur Ross h -24.51%
Richard Blum h -24.80%
Robert Karr h -25.64%
Bruce Berkowitz m -34.34%
Ian Cumming i -51.20%