The current turmoil in the eurozone bonds markets shows striking parallels to the situation in autumn 2008. Then, bank depositors had lost confidence in the stability of the institutions holding their assets, and the threat of a bank-run could only be avoided by comprehensive government guarantees for all banks. Today, we are observing a bond-run: a self-fulfilling crisis of confidence in the stability of most eurozone sovereign borrowers. This is driving long-term rates up, so that for more and more countries a temporary liquidity problem is becoming a permanent solvency problem. As regulators still treat government bonds as the safe core of the financial system, this vicious circle threatens the stability of financial institutions not only in the eurozone but also in the rest of the world. It intensifies the recessionary tendencies in the global economy so that in turn the financial situation of governments becomes worse. It’s a perfect vicious circle.
It can be broken only by stopping the bond-run as soon as possible. One way out would be a joint liability for the debt of eurozone members. But as the reaction of Angela Merkel’s government to a recent proposal of the German Council of Economic Experts has shown, the prospects for such a solution are not very good.
An alternative is the Soros plan as outlined in the Financial Times on October 24. The authorities could use the Emergency Financial Stability Facility to enable the European Central Bank to act as a lender of last resort without violating its statutes. The ECB would provide practically unlimited amounts of liquidity while the EFSF guaranteed the ECB against the solvency risks that it would incur. Acting together, they could resolve the liquidity problems facing the banks, and enable fiscally-responsible governments to issue treasury bills for less than one per cent.
Link to entire article: http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/11/21/the-ecb-must-step-in-to-save-the-eurozone/#axzz1eRvdRrqF
It can be broken only by stopping the bond-run as soon as possible. One way out would be a joint liability for the debt of eurozone members. But as the reaction of Angela Merkel’s government to a recent proposal of the German Council of Economic Experts has shown, the prospects for such a solution are not very good.
An alternative is the Soros plan as outlined in the Financial Times on October 24. The authorities could use the Emergency Financial Stability Facility to enable the European Central Bank to act as a lender of last resort without violating its statutes. The ECB would provide practically unlimited amounts of liquidity while the EFSF guaranteed the ECB against the solvency risks that it would incur. Acting together, they could resolve the liquidity problems facing the banks, and enable fiscally-responsible governments to issue treasury bills for less than one per cent.
Link to entire article: http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/11/21/the-ecb-must-step-in-to-save-the-eurozone/#axzz1eRvdRrqF
