Another potential obstacle is the specter of the credit agencies attempting to appear relevant. I have covered the actions of both Moody’s and S&P in relation to MEG and its equity and bond prices and suffice to say the credit agencies have generally been laggards. Nonetheless, Moody’s was quick to remind investors following the announcement of the credit extension that it was still determining how to finalize its overall rating of MEG. While Moody’s and S&P ratings are generally worthless for the long-term, they can be causes of volatility in the short-term.
Aside from the waiting period and possibility of credit agencies having their say, what really needs to be done? First, JPM needs to amend the existing bond indenture to allow for additional issuance of debt either above or pari passu with MEG’s high yield notes. Once this is done, JPM would also probably arrange a roadshow for management to present to potential debt investors. Right now, I would guess that BAC and JPM have AlixPartners and Capstone both helping management in streamlining the overall business and incorporating those improvements into MEG’s projections for the roadshow. AlixPartners could be suggesting that obscenely excessive management compensation be significantly reduced as an area to boost cash flow or that MEG’s Blackdot or DealTaker businesses are shut down as they generate losses. Once these and other steps are accepted and incorporated into the roadshow presentations, MEG should be able to secure a finalized debt structure and if the terms are attractive, the stock could be poised for a nice move up. While this management team is capable of epic failure, the deadline appears to allow MEG to come in with a new deal by early May, providing a cushion of a few weeks.
What is an attractive deal? I think the stock currently reflects an expectation that MEG can secure new notes for about 11-13% excluding fees whereby total interest expense on annualized basis is about $74MM. For 2012, this would mean total interest expense of about $65-70MM given one quarter was basically at the older deal. In previous posts I have presented MEG mainly on a pro forma basis under the assumption of a full calendar year under a new deal but the reality is that 2012 actual interest expense will be lower than the pro forma projections given most of Q1 was under the old, more favorable BAC deal. As Exhibit I illustrates, MEG could generate about $25MM in free cash flow in 2012.
EXHIBIT I: MEG POST JPM 225MM NOTES ISSUANCE
Unlike previous posts which presented figures under the assumption certain transactions were in effect at the start of the year, Exhibit I attempts to get as close as possible as to what the true costs for MEG would be in 2012 and 2013. The following are the assumptions used in Exhibit I:
- JPM amends the high yield indenture to allow for the $225MM notes to be issued pari passu with the existing notes. Given that the bonds are trading at par, the issuance of notes at 11.75% could be possible.
- The Revenue and EBITDA figures for 2012 are based on my original estimates but if AlixPartners and Capstone are worth their fees, I would expect some operational and efficiency changes to occur to boost both the bottom and topline in 2013. In 2011, MEG generated about $616MM in revenue and $89MM in pro forma EBITDA so my estimates in 2013 are not too much greater than what MEG’s own management team achieved without the assistance of any recognized turnaround firms.
- Interest expense is based on the deal changing in Q2 2012. In Q1, bank interest expense was roughly $4.5MM under the original deal while high yield interest was about $9MM. New notes under 11.75% and the new Term Loan deal would be in effect for just 3 months so total interest is about $70MM in 2012 before being in full effect for 2013.
- CapEx and Pension are kept consistent for both 2012 and 2013 and the 2012 figures are MEG’s own estimates. In 2013, I assume similar figures. The 10K discusses potential pension outlays in future years while the BAC term loan allows for about 80% of the maximum pension annual pension contribution. Given how these figures can shift, I have left the contribution amount for the pension the same in 2013.
- MEG has stated that it is not expecting to be a cash tax payer.
- I assume all free cash flow is used to pay down the existing bank debt. BAC appears to want to get out of this deal by 2015 and have MEG be financed primarily with high yield and/or Term Loan B and a minimal revolver.
- The Cash Balance segment is the cash reported from MEG’s 10K. I estimate fees will total about $18MM in 2012.
Assuming those firms can provide assistance to this management team, then MEG should be in a solid position to lock up relatively attractive financing terms. The overhang from the stock would be removed. In addition, in late April investors should receive MEG’s Q1 report. The figures from Q1 2012 should benefit from a number of contested Republican primaries in key MEG states – most notably FL – as well as ad dollars from the NBC broadcast Super Bowl. Removing the overhang of financing will allow the attractive fundamentals to resonate with investors.
What’s more, once MEG removes the financing overhang, it may be possibly to focus on selling off its newspaper division. I believe management will aggressively pursue a sale given the new debt terms and the types of investors that will hold MEG’s paper. As I’ve stated before, a sale of the newspaper division is really where MEG can experience a major upward valuation revision. Similar to Exhibit I, Exhibit II attempts to get a closer look at how MEG would look if it could sell off its newspaper segment by the end of Q2 2012.
EXHIBIT II: MEG POST NEWSPAPER DIVISION SALE
As with Exhibit I, Exhibit II attempts to present MEG as close to reality as possible in terms of timing of transactions. The assumptions are as follows:
- Same financing assumptions as in Exhibit I whereby MEG announces a sale of its newspaper division for $115MM with the deal set to close at the end of Q2 2012.
- The proceeds are used to pay down BAC’s $138MM term loan resulting in just $23MM in the BAC facility.
- Revenue and EBITDA are based on my estimates for a broadcast and newspaper MEG in H1 2012 followed by a broadcast only MEG (also includes its web based ad division) in H2 2012. In 2013, I assume broadcast revenue would decline by about 11% (consistent with its decline from 2010 to 2011) with EBITDA margins contracting from 35% to 32% on a platform level (consistent with 2011 levels) and assume the DealTaker segment generates about $30MM in revenue and is cash flow neutral. I assume that a combination of the consulting firms and MEG being a smaller company can result in overhead reduced from $26MM to $11MM yielding EBITDA of $87MM.
- Interest expense is based on Q1 being under the original deal, Q2 being under the new deal, and then Q3 and Q4 under a bank facility reduced by the proceeds of the newspaper sale.
- CapEx is $15MM in 2012 under the assumption that H1 capex was $10MM based on a broadcast and newspaper MEG while H2 capex would be half given the sale of the newspaper division. In 2013, I assume CapEx is half of the annual $20MM as a broadcast-only MEG.
- Pension expense is constant as I assume MEG retains the legacy costs associated with the newspaper segment.
This scenario is what longs are hoping for while the skeptics are betting on MEG coming up short and as a result, the stock price appears to be in a tight range. It should be apparent in the coming weeks how prospects are looking for both sides of the MEG trade.
DISCLOSURE: AUTHOR MANAGES A HEDGE FUND AND MANAGED ACCOUNTS LONG MEG.
About the author:
Amit Chokshi is the founder and owner of Kinnaras and affiliated companies and is responsible for security analysis, selection, portfolio management, and Firm operations. Prior to founding Kinnaras, he worked as an associate at the Royal Bank of Scotland ("RBS") in the firm's Corporate Advisory Services group, which provided corporate finance and mergers and acquisition ("M&A") services to the firm's clients with a particular emphasis on private equity firms. Amit also worked at Morgan Stanley and received a B.S. in Finance from Bryant University and an MBA from Emory University. In addition to passing the NASD Series 7, 63, and 65 exams, Amit is also a CFA Charterholder and on the Board of the Stamford CFA Society. Amit has appeared on Bloomberg Radio and has also been quoted in various publications regarding Firm-specific holdings.