How to Value Microsoft?

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Jun 02, 2006
Microsoft is a difficult situation for me to evaluate. I think the company still has a lot of growth ahead in some areas. But, that depends on where management wants to take it.

There are three core businesses that are already well developed: Windows, Office, and Servers. The moat in each of the first two businesses is wide. The Windows moat is huge. The business model in operating systems is good. You keep upgrading every few years, the hardware needn't progress for you to find things to tweak and get people to buy the next step up. It's insanely profitable.


I think the new launch ( Vista) will be bigger than people expect (eventually) in how it allows for cross selling other Microsoft products (but we'll see about that). I expect the press to be very negative at least until well after the launch, because there will always be problems.


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