Starting with a base estimate of annual Free Cash Flow at a value of approximately $950,000,000 and the number of shares outstanding at 2,140,000,000 shares; we used an assumed FCF annual growth of 15 percent for the first 10 years and assume zero growth from years 11 to 15. Review the Free Cash Flow record here:
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/CashFlowRatios10.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=fb&stocktab=keyratio
The resulting estimated intrinsic value per share (discounted back to the present) is approximately $11.14.
Market Price = $34.03 and Intrinsic Value = $11.14 (estimated)
I used a discount rate of 6.25% and the moat appears to be narrow and shallow. The moat can last as long as Google or Yahoo or Microsoft do not design a friendlier website. Once one of the big cloud providers designs a friendlier interface, the moat starts eroding.
For example, if Google+ was easier to use, and it added features like a friendlier eBay style trading, barter or consulting, it could take the lead. Thus far Google+ is too cumbersome and geeky to be useful. However, they are trying to make it better.
Bud Labitan
Author of "The Four Filters Invention of Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger" and "Moats: The Competitive Advantages of Buffett & Munger Businesses"
http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/CashFlowRatios10.aspx?Country=USA&Symbol=fb&stocktab=keyratio
The resulting estimated intrinsic value per share (discounted back to the present) is approximately $11.14.
Market Price = $34.03 and Intrinsic Value = $11.14 (estimated)
I used a discount rate of 6.25% and the moat appears to be narrow and shallow. The moat can last as long as Google or Yahoo or Microsoft do not design a friendlier website. Once one of the big cloud providers designs a friendlier interface, the moat starts eroding.
For example, if Google+ was easier to use, and it added features like a friendlier eBay style trading, barter or consulting, it could take the lead. Thus far Google+ is too cumbersome and geeky to be useful. However, they are trying to make it better.
Bud Labitan
Author of "The Four Filters Invention of Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger" and "Moats: The Competitive Advantages of Buffett & Munger Businesses"
