Jim Grant on Japanese Net-nets

I’ve mentioned my interest in Japanese stocks several times. With that in mind, I found this Jim Grant video (posted on lonestarvalue) really interesting. Grant discusses a company he bought in below NCAV, how mgmt ignored his request for a mgmt buyout, and how it was eventually taken private at 0.9x book value after almost a decade of waiting.

However, I do have one question. The blogger lists it as a cautionary tale, and Grant seems extremely frustrated by the whole process.

But Grant also mentions the following

  • The company pays a 3%+ dividend
  • The company compounds book at least 5% every year
Whenever I do the math w/ those two facts, plus buying in below NCAV, I get an absolutely outstanding return. As a matter of fact, it’d be hard to put in numbers that don’t result in a mid-teens+ CAGR on the investment.

So is it really a cautionary tale? Or a tale of how buying with a huge margin of safety + having patience leads to outstanding long term result.