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Jim Chanos: A Search for Global Value... TRAPS! CNX, CTSR, HPQ, STD, PBR

June 28, 2012 | About:

Holly LaFon

276 followers
In the recent VALUEx Vail Conference, short seller Jim Chanos discussed possible value traps:

CONSOL energy (CNX): faces headwinds

1. Thermal coal, 61% of 1Q12 gross profit – pressure from coal-to-gas substitution

2. Metallurgical coal, 25% of 1Q12 gross profit – uncertain Chinese steel demand

3. Shale gas, 14% of 1Q12 gross profit – ongoing domestic overinvestment

Petrobras (PBR)

Government intervention reduces inherent value

1. Push for local services. PBR must incorporate 65% of content from local services industry; Brazil must construct a high-end shipbuilding industry from scratch

2. Doenstream: Domestic fuel prices capped

3. Government domination of PBR

Hewlett-Packward (HPQ) is a value trap: the death of PC

1. –PCs: LTM operating income down 5% YoY; cannibalization from mobile computing

2. –Printers: LTM operating income down 28% YoY; fall in inkjet printing

3. –IT services: LTM operating income down 23% YoY; lack of Itanium support from Oracle, falling government spending, competitive pressures

4. –Servers/networking: LTM operating income down 19% YoY; fall in UNIX market

Coinstar (CSTR)

Reaching saturation point

1. –Over 68% of Americans now live within a five-minute drive from a Redbox kiosk

2. –Including the acquisition of NCR‟s DVD kiosks, Redbox will have 45-50K DVD kiosks in operation by YE12, or 39-44K single kiosk locations, which is near the low end of management‟s full saturation estimate of 45K

Banco Santander (STD)

Significant real estate exposure in Spain

–Equates to 166% of TBV as of 1Q12

–33% of commercial real estate loans are classified as NPLs

–Residential mortgage NPLs at 2.6% of portfolio

•Brazil exposure a headwind, not a panacea


VALUExVail 2012 - James Chanos

Rating: 3.4/5 (25 votes)

Comments

superguru
Superguru - 2 years ago
Anyone surprised that some of the stocks Chanos mentioned as value traps are very popular among the Gurus.

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