What's Driving Splunk Inc's Surprising 39% Stock Rally?

Splunk Inc (SPLK, Financial), a cloud-first software company, has seen a significant surge in its stock price over the past three months. The company's stock price has risen by 38.64% over the past quarter, with a notable 18.54% gain in the past week alone. Currently priced at $144.78, the company boasts a market cap of $24.28 billion. Despite this impressive performance, the stock's GF Value stands at $174.5, down from $192.52 three months ago. This suggests that the stock is modestly undervalued, a shift from its previous status as a possible value trap.

Company Overview: Splunk Inc

Splunk Inc operates in the software industry, focusing on the analysis of machine data. The San Francisco-based company is a significant player in two markets: security and full-stack monitoring & analysis. With over 90% of the Fortune 100 using its solutions, Splunk Inc's primary revenue sources include the sale of software licenses, cloud subscriptions, and maintenance and support services. 1704877175494148096.png

Profitability Analysis

Despite its recent stock performance, Splunk Inc's profitability rank is 3/10, indicating that its profitability is lower than many of its industry peers. The company's operating margin stands at -0.75%, which is better than 42.64% of companies in the industry. Furthermore, the company's ROA of -0.41% and ROIC of -1.31% are better than a significant portion of companies in the industry. 1704877193978445824.png

Growth Prospects

Splunk Inc's growth rank is 7/10, indicating strong growth potential. The company's 3-year and 5-year revenue growth rates per share are 13.20% and 15.90% respectively, outperforming a significant portion of its industry peers. Looking ahead, the company's future 3-year to 5-year total revenue growth rate estimate is 12.48%, and its EPS without NRI growth rate estimate is 29.08%. 1704877210495614976.png

Major Stock Holders

PRIMECAP Management (Trades, Portfolio) is the largest holder of Splunk Inc's stock, with 6.73% of the shares. Jerome Dodson (Trades, Portfolio) and Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) follow, holding 0.22% and 0.2% of the stock respectively.

Competitive Landscape

Splunk Inc operates in a competitive industry, with major competitors including Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM, Financial), Check Point Software Technologies Ltd (CHKP, Financial), and MongoDB Inc (MDB, Financial). These companies have market caps of $16.24 billion, $15.94 billion, and $24.16 billion respectively.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Splunk Inc's recent stock performance has been impressive, with a 38.64% gain over the past three months. Despite its lower profitability rank, the company's operating margin, ROA, and ROIC are better than a significant portion of companies in the industry. Furthermore, the company's strong growth rank and future growth estimates suggest potential for further stock price appreciation. However, investors should also consider the competitive landscape and the company's current valuation before making investment decisions.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.