Value-focused investors are always on the hunt for stocks that are priced below their intrinsic value. One such stock that merits attention is UGI Corp (UGI, Financial). The stock, which is currently priced at 20.24, recorded a loss of 4.57% in a day and a 3-month decrease of 21.77%. The stock's fair valuation is $45.69, as indicated by its GF Value.
Understanding GF Value
The GF Value represents the current intrinsic value of a stock derived from our exclusive method. The GF Value Line on our summary page gives an overview of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on three factors: Historical multiples (PE Ratio, PS Ratio, PB Ratio and Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow) that the stock has traded at, GuruFocus adjustment factor based on the company's past returns and growth, and Future estimates of the business performance.
We believe the GF Value Line is the fair value that the stock should be traded at. The stock price will most likely fluctuate around the GF Value Line. If the stock price is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher.
UGI's Risk Factors
However, investors need to consider a more in-depth analysis before making an investment decision. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation, certain risk factors associated with UGI (UGI, Financial) should not be ignored. These risks are primarily reflected through its low Altman Z-score of 0.84. These indicators suggest that UGI, despite its apparent undervaluation, might be a potential value trap. This complexity underlines the importance of thorough due diligence in investment decision-making.
Understanding the Altman Z-Score
Before delving into the details, let's understand what the Altman Z-score entails. Invented by New York University Professor Edward I. Altman in 1968, the Z-Score is a financial model that predicts the probability of a company entering bankruptcy within a two-year time frame. The Altman Z-Score combines five different financial ratios, each weighted to create a final score. A score below 1.8 suggests a high likelihood of financial distress, while a score above 3 indicates a low risk.
Company Introduction
UGI Corp is an American holding company that, through its subsidiaries, is involved in the transport and marketing of energy and related services. Its segments include AmeriGas Propane, UGI International, Midstream & Marketing, and UGI Utilities. The AmeriGas Propane segment consists of the propane distribution business. The UGI International segment consists of LPG distribution businesses. The Midstream & Marketing segment consists of energy-related businesses. The UGI Utilities segment consists of the regulated natural gas and electric distribution.
UGI's Low Altman Z-Score: A Breakdown of Key Drivers
A dissection of UGI's Altman Z-score reveals UGI's financial health may be weak, suggesting possible financial distress:
The Retained Earnings to Total Assets ratio provides insights into a company's capability to reinvest its profits or manage debt. Evaluating UGI's historical data, 2021: 0.24; 2022: 0.27; 2023: 0.20, we observe a declining trend in this ratio. This downward movement indicates UGI's diminishing ability to reinvest in its business or effectively manage its debt. Consequently, it exerts a negative impact on its Z-Score.
The EBIT to Total Assets ratio serves as a crucial barometer of a company's operational effectiveness, correlating earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to total assets. An analysis of UGI's EBIT to Total Assets ratio from historical data (2021: 0.10; 2022: 0.13; 2023: -0.09) indicates a descending trend. This reduction suggests that UGI might not be utilizing its assets to their full potential to generate operational profits, which could be negatively affecting the company's overall Z-score.
When it comes to operational efficiency, a vital indicator for UGI is its asset turnover. The data: 2021: 0.49; 2022: 0.58; 2023: 0.57 from the past three years suggests a recent decline following an initial increase in this ratio. The asset turnover ratio reflects how effectively a company is using its assets to generate sales. Therefore, a drop in this ratio can signify reduced operational efficiency, potentially due to underutilization of assets or decreased market demand for the company's products or services. This shift in UGI's asset turnover underlines the need for the company to reassess its operational strategies to optimize asset usage and boost sales.
Conclusion
Considering the above factors, it appears that UGI (UGI, Financial) might indeed be a value trap. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation, the company's declining financial health and operational efficiency are causes for concern. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough due diligence before making an investment decision.
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This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.
