Tom Gayner, Markel Corp Comment on Investing Process and 20% Equity Return
2. We earned excellent returns on our investment portfolio
During 2012, we earned a total return of 9% on our investment portfolio. Our equity returns were 20% and our fixed income returns were 5%. We are very happy with these results, and we hope that you are as well. The 2012 equity returns of 20% added to a long string of excellent results. Over the last 10 years, we've earned a total equity return of 9% versus the S&P 500 index returns of 7% and for the last 20 years we earned 10% versus the index return of 8%.
Over the years, we've never made decisions based on our forecasts of what was ahead for the economy, governmental policies, tax rates, currency values, interest rates, technological changes or other incredibly important but fundamentally unknowable future developments.
Instead, we've simply looked at individual companies, one at a time, and asked ourselves a few questions. By considering four basic types of questions about individual companies and securities we try to develop enough confidence to make a decision.
Our first question is, "Is this a profitable business with good returns on capital without using too much debt?" Second, we ask ourselves, "Is the management team equally and sufficiently talented and honest?" Third, we ask, "What are the reinvestment dynamics of the business and how do they manage capital?" and finally we ask, "What is the valuation and what do we have to pay to acquire ownership in the business?"
While these are four simple questions, the process of thinking deeply about them tends to produce robust results over time as demonstrated by our long-term record. Those questions also tend to encompass consideration of some of the macroeconomic factors that tend to cause so much worry and anxiety for so many investors.
Consider the first question of profitability and returns on capital. The best and most durable businesses in the world are ones that serve their customers well.
Profitability is a marker that says a business is serving its customers with products that they need and want and that they are efficient and skilled enough in doing so that there is a measure of profit left over after all is said and done.
If a business is not making an appropriate profit it means that either they are doing something that the customers don't particularly care about, or that they are not good enough at the task to accomplish it in a cost effective manner. Neither one of those outcomes is good. As such, just thinking about the long-term profitability and return on capital record of a business gives us a wonderful insight into whether the company is indeed serving its customers in a fruitful way.
The best marker to describe a successful long-term company is a long-term record of profitability and good returns on capital, and that is the first thing we look for in seeking equity investments in either our public or private equity investments.
Second, we think about the talent and integrity of the managers running the business. If a manager has integrity but is short of talent, that manager may be a very nice person and a pleasant friend or neighbor. However, in the context of business, they can't get the job done and that will not produce a good economic outcome. Similarly, if someone is talented but has an integrity problem, they might do something profitable in the short run but it will fall apart in the fullness of time. We look for these same attributes in all of our colleagues inside Markel, in the managers of the companies in our public security portfolios, and the managers of the companies we've acquired in our Markel Ventures operations.
Third, we think about the reinvestment dynamics of a business. A wonderful business can take the profits it earns and reinvest the mat similar or better returns over time and compound value. Organic growth companies like this are rare and hard to find and none of them last forever. In this world, perfection is not attainable, but we try to snuggle up as close to it as we can whenever we can find it.
The second best business in the world is one that makes very good returns on capital but cannot fully reinvest the profits at similar rates. Those businesses are fine as long as the management team accepts the reality and allocates capital to other uses. In our public equity holdings we own several fine businesses which meet this definition and pay meaningful dividends, repurchase shares, or make good acquisitions. Also, within our Markel Ventures operations, several of our companies match this profile.
When we own a controlling interest in a company like this we can make the capital allocation decisions and do so in a very tax-efficient manner.While we pay full taxes at any entity when they make money, we can subsequently re-allocate the earnings from any area of Markel to any other, all around the world. By contrast, when we earn passive income through the receipt of dividends on our public equity portfolio, the paying companies paid taxes on their earnings and we pay a tax on the dividends received. By building the controlled 5 interests of Markel Ventures operations, we are able to eliminate this tax drag and increase the value of Markel with less friction than would otherwise be the case.
Fourth, we think about the valuation we must pay to buy a company with the three lovely attributes we described earlier.We've learned over the years, as Charlie Munger from Berkshire Hathaway noted, that, "it is better to pay a fair price for a great business than a great price for a fair business." Great businesses compound their value over time while fair businesses wallow in mediocrity. As long as we find great businesses at reasonable prices, we'll allocate your capital to owning them to the fullest extent possible.When great businesses sell for irrationally high prices, and sometimes they do, we'll build cash, continue to look elsewhere, and continue our search for long-term compounding machines that are otherwise known as common stocks of great businesses. Finally, we are pursuing unusual tactics in our investment strategy in the current environment.We believe that interest rates are fundamentally too low.We expect that will change within the next few years and we want to be prepared for the time when it does.
As such, we are letting our fixed income holdings mature and come closer and closer to turning into cash and cash equivalents. The investment yield from this is literally almost nothing so it is painful to be building cash. However, the investment yield of investing longer-term in fixed income is not much more. Just as an insurance underwriter needs to make a good risk/reward decision about whether to accept a risk or not, we must do the same thing in our investment decisions.We've concluded that we are not being paid adequately to assume the risk of owning longer-term fixed income securities so we are letting our cash balances build up.
We look forward to deploying this cash into longer-term and higher yielding investments when the opportunities inevitably present themselves.Meanwhile, we will wait. At the same time, we continue to own a portfolio of equity interests, both passively through our public equity holdings and actively through our build out of the Markel Ventures operation.We believe that our companies represented by these holdings meet the four question test we discussed earlier and will prove to be durable and profitable businesses into the future.With the Alterra acquisition the size of our portfolio will increase dramatically. The addition of this portfolio and the growing cash balances create a "coiled spring" that we are looking to deploy and uncoil when opportunities present themselves.
The fantastic news is that the opportunity costs from taking this approach are as low right now as they have ever been given the low level of interest rates. As we see the "whites of their eyes" in investment markets we have more ammo to expend than ever before. This is a tough concept to quantify but it represents one of the most dramatic capital allocation and value opportunities that has ever existed at Markel.
Over time, we've compiled a record that should give you some confidence we will act rationally and produce good results for you as shareholders. Stay tuned for further developments…