What's Driving Century Aluminum Co's Surprising 91% Stock Rally?

Century Aluminum Co (CENX, Financial) has experienced a remarkable surge in its stock price, with a 7.03% gain over the past week and an impressive 91.34% gain over the past three months. The company's market capitalization now stands at $1.04 billion, with the current stock price at $11.27. This performance has brought the stock to a valuation that GuruFocus deems as "Fairly Valued," with a GF Value of $12.09. This is a notable shift from three months ago when the stock was considered a "Possible Value Trap, Think Twice" with a past GF Value of $13.19. Such a significant price change warrants a closer look at the company's fundamentals and market position.

Company Overview

Century Aluminum Co, operating in the Metals & Mining industry, is a key player in the production of primary aluminum. The company's smelter facilities are located in the United States and Iceland, with a significant portion of its North American production being purchased by Glencore. Century Aluminum's product range includes high purity aluminum, standard grade aluminum sow and tee bars, as well as value-added billet and foundry products. Additionally, the company owns a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. This diverse product portfolio and strategic business relationships are central to Century's operations.

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Profitability Analysis

Century Aluminum's Profitability Rank stands at 4/10, indicating challenges in maintaining consistent profitability. The company's Operating Margin is currently at -1.27%, which, while not ideal, is better than 43.31% of 845 companies in the industry. The ROE (Return on Equity) is deeply negative at -47.01%, yet it surpasses 28.08% of 2475 companies. Similarly, the ROA (Return on Assets) is at -11.72%, which is better than 55.43% of 2679 companies. The ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) is also negative at -1.82%, but it is higher than 80.06% of 2648 companies. Over the past decade, Century has managed to achieve profitability in only two years, which is still better than 51.08% of 1200 companies in the sector.

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Growth Prospects

The company's Growth Rank is 4/10, reflecting moderate growth potential. Century Aluminum's 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share is 13.70%, outperforming 54.7% of 585 companies in the industry. The 5-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share is 8.50%, which is better than 52.24% of 513 companies. Furthermore, the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate is an impressive 21.50%, surpassing 64.77% of 1740 companies. These growth metrics suggest that while Century Aluminum has faced profitability challenges, it has managed to grow its revenue and earnings per share at a reasonable rate.

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Investor Holdings

Notable investors have taken positions in Century Aluminum, with Ken Fisher (Trades, Portfolio) holding 2,337,111 shares, representing 2.53% of the company. First Eagle Investment (Trades, Portfolio) holds 791,514 shares, accounting for 0.86%, and Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) owns 614,499 shares, making up 0.67% of the company. These significant holdings by respected investors may signal confidence in the company's future prospects.

Competitive Landscape

When compared to its competitors, Century Aluminum's market capitalization is closely aligned with Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU, Financial) at $1.07 billion. However, it is smaller than Constellium SE (CSTM, Financial) with a market cap of $2.79 billion and significantly smaller than Hindalco Industries Ltd (NSE:HINDALCO, Financial) at $14.56 billion. This comparison highlights Century's position within the industry and the scale of its operations relative to its peers.

Conclusion

In summary, Century Aluminum Co's stock performance has been robust in recent months, with the company currently being fairly valued according to the GF Value. Despite facing profitability challenges, the company has demonstrated growth in revenue and earnings per share. The positions held by significant investors and the company's standing in the competitive landscape of the Metals & Mining industry further contextualize its recent stock price rally. Investors should continue to monitor Century Aluminum's financial health and market position to make informed investment decisions.

This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.