China's New Tech Guidelines Impact Major US Chip and Tech Firms

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Over the recent weekend, China introduced new guidelines that have significant implications for major US technology firms, particularly those in the semiconductor industry. Notably, Intel (INTC, Financial) and Advanced Micro (AMD, Financial) are directly affected as the guidelines prevent government computers in China from using processors from these companies. The move is a boost for Arm (ARM, Financial), which utilizes a different architecture from Intel and AMD's x86. Additionally, the guidelines pose challenges for NVIDIA (NVDA, Financial), known for its GPUs, as the restrictions focus on CPUs.

The impact of China's new policies extends beyond chip manufacturers to software giants like Microsoft (MSFT, Financial). The guidelines favor the use of domestically produced operating systems, primarily based on Linux, over Microsoft's Windows. This development is part of broader tensions between the U.S. and China, with both nations imposing restrictions on each other's technology companies, citing national security concerns.

The U.S. has taken several steps to limit the operations of Chinese tech firms within its borders, including banning sales of new equipment from Huawei and ZTE, imposing export curbs on high-performance chips, and restricting AI chip exports to China. In retaliation, China has limited the use of Apple's (AAPL, Financial) iPhones among its agencies and state-backed firms.

  • Intel (INTC, Financial) has managed to navigate export curbs until now, even retaining its license to sell chips to Huawei, unlike AMD. However, the new guidelines could disrupt Intel's significant revenue from China, which accounts for 27% of its total revenue in FY23.
  • AMD, which relies less on China for its revenue, faces additional challenges from the new regulations. Despite deriving only 15% of its FY23 revenue from China, the restrictions complicate AMD's efforts to compete more effectively against NVIDIA.

China's latest move to tighten restrictions on U.S. tech firms introduces new challenges for the affected companies. While these developments are part of ongoing tensions between the two countries, they underscore the geopolitical risks that major tech firms face in international markets. Earlier warnings had indicated that companies like Intel might face China-related challenges, highlighting the broader implications of strained U.S.-China relations on the tech industry.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.