Is the Market Rigged? The short answer is “yes”, but unlike gambling in Las Vegas, investing in the stock market rigs the odds in your favor. How can this be? The market is trading at record highs; the Federal Reserve is artificially inflating stocks with Quantitative easing (QE); there is global turmoil flaring up everywhere; and author Michael Lewis says the stock market is rigged with HFT – High Frequency Traders (see Lewis Sells Flash Boys Snake Oil). I freely admit the headlines have been scary, but scary headlines will always exist. More importantly for investors, they should be more focused on factors like record corporate profits (see Halftime Adjustments); near generationally-low interest rates; and reasonable valuation metrics like the price-earnings (P/E) ratios.
Even if you were to ignore these previously mentioned factors, one can use history as a guide for evidence that stocks are rigged in your favor. In fact, if you look at S&P 500 stock returns from 1928 (before the Great Depression) until today, you will see that stock prices are up +72.1% of the time on average.
If the public won at such a high rate in Las Vegas, the town would be broke and closed, with no sign of pyramids, Eiffel Towers, or 46-story water fountains. There’s a reason Las Vegas casinos collected $23 billion in 2013 – the odds are rigged against the public. Even Shaquille O’Neil would be better served by straying away from Vegas and concentrating on stocks. If Shaq could have improved his 52.7% career free-throw percentage to the 72.1% win rate for stocks, perhaps he would have earned a few more championship rings?
Considering a 72% winning percentage, conceptually a “Buy-and-Hold” strategy sounds pretty compelling. In the current market, I definitely feel this type of strategy could beat most market timing and day trading strategies over time. Even better than this strategy, a “Buy Winners-and-Hold Winners” strategy makes more sense. In other words, when investing, the question shouldn’t revolve around “when” to buy, but rather “what” to buy. At Sidoxia Capital Management we are primarily bottom up investors, so the appreciation potential of any security in our view is largely driven by factors such as valuation, earnings growth, and cash flows. With interest rates near record lows and a scarcity of attractive alternatives, the limited options actually make investing decisions much easier.
Scarcity of Alternatives Makes Investing Easier
U.S. investors moan and complain about our paltry 2.42% yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note, but how appetizing, on a risk-reward basis, does a 2.24% Irish 10-year government bond sound? Yes, this is the same country that needed a $100 billion+ bailout during the financial crisis. Better yet, how does a 1.05% yield or 0.51% yield sound on 10-year government treasury bonds from Germany and Japan, respectively? Moreover, what these minuscule yields don’t factor in is the potentially crippling interest rate risk investors will suffer when (not if) interest rates rise.
Fortunately, Sidoxia’s client portfolios are diversified across a broad range of asset classes. The quantitative results from our proprietary 5,000 SHGR (“Sugar”) security database continue to highlight the significant opportunities in the equities markets, relative to the previously discussed “bubblicious” parts of the fixed income markets. Worth noting, investors need to also remove their myopic blinders centered on U.S. large cap stocks. These companies dominate media channel discussions, however there are no shortage of other great opportunities in the broader investment universe, including such areas as small cap stocks, floating-rate bonds, real estate, commodities, emerging markets, alternative investments, etc.
I don’t mind listening to the bearish equity market calls for stock market collapses due to an inevitable Fed stimulus unwind, mean reverting corporate profit margins, or bubble bursting event in China. Nevertheless, when it comes to investing, there is always something to worry about. While there is always some uncertainty, the best investors love uncertainty because those environments create the most opportunities. Stocks can and eventually will go down, but rather than irresponsibly flailing around in and out of risk-on and risk-off trades to time the market (see Market Timing Treadmill), we will continue to steward our clients’ money into areas where we see the best risk-reward prospects.
For those other investors sitting on the sidelines due to market fears, I commend you for coming to the proper conclusion that stock markets are rigged. Now you just need to understand stocks are rigged for you (not against you)…at least 72% of the time.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold a range of exchange traded fund positions, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.