In a previous article, we analyzed quantitative aspects of CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL, Financial), a $21.9 billion market cap company that has grown via acquisitions to become the third-largest telecom provider in the U.S., offering services to both residential and business customers.
Biggest decline
Since 1974, it has a dividend policy showing its commitment to return cash to investors in the form of dividends as it generates healthy cash flow on a regular basis. In February, the quarterly dividend fell to 54 cents a share from 72.5 cents. As a consequence, this dividend cut caused a panic among investors and the shares tumbled about 23% to $32.27, the biggest one-day decline in the last 30 or 40 years. Now, the current dividend yield is 5.7% and is ranked higher than 83% of the 678 companies in the Telecom Services industry. So, in this article let's take a look at the intrinsic value and try to compare it with the current stock price.
Valuation
In stock valuation models, dividend discount models (DDM) define cash flow as the dividends to be received by the shareholders. Extending the period indefinitely, the fundamental value of the stock is the present value of an infinite stream of dividends according to John Burr Williams.
Although this is theoretically correct, it requires forecasting dividends for many periods, so we can use some growth models like: Gordon (constant) growth model, the Two- or Three-Stage growth model or the H-Model (which is a special case of a two-stage model). With the appropriate model, we can forecast dividends up to the end of the investment horizon where we no longer have confidence in the forecasts and then forecast a terminal value based on some other method, such as a multiple of book value or earnings.
To start with, the Gordon Growth Model (GGM) assumes that dividends increase at a constant rate indefinitely.
This formula condenses to: V0=(D0 (1+g))/(r-g)=D1/(r-g)
where:
V0 = fundamental value
D0 = last year dividends per share of Exxon's common stock
r = required rate of return on the common stock
g = dividend growth rate
Let´s estimate the inputs for modeling:
Required Rate of Return (r)
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) estimates the required return on equity using the following formula: required return on stockj = risk-free rate + beta of j x equity risk premium
Assumptions:
Risk-Free Rate: Rate of return on LT Government Debt: RF = 2.67%. This is a very low rate because of today´s context. Since 1900, yields have ranged from a little less than 2% to 15%; with an average rate of 4.9%. So I think it is more appropriate to use this rate.
Beta: β =0.5
GGM equity risk premium = (1-year forecasted dividend yield on market index) +(consensus long-term earnings growth rate) – (long-term government bond yield) = 2.13% + 11.97% - 2.67% = 11.43%[1]
rCTL = RF + βCTL [GGM ERP]
= 4.9% + 0.5 [11.43%]
= 10.62%
Dividend growth rate (g)
The sustainable growth rate is the rate at which earnings and dividends can grow indefinitely assuming that the firm´s debt-to-equity ratio is unchanged and it doesn´t issue new equity.
g = b x ROE
b = retention rate
ROE=(Net Income)/Equity= ((Net Income)/Sales).(Sales/(Total Assets)).((Total Assets)/Equity)
The “PRAT” Model:
g= ((Net Income-Dividends)/(Net Income)).((Net Income)/Sales).(Sales/(Total Assets)).((Total Assets)/Equity)
Let´s collect the information we need to get the dividend growth rate:
| Financial Data (USD $ in millions) | 31/12/2013 | 31/12/2012 | 31/12/2011 |
| Cash dividends declared | 1,301,000 | 1,811,000 | 1,556,000 |
| Net income applicable to common shares | (239,000) | 7,770,000 | 573,000 |
| Net sales | 18,095,000 | 18,376,000 | 15,351,000 |
| Total assets | 51,787,000 | 53,940,000 | 56,044,000 |
| Total Shareholders' equity | 17,191,000 | 19,289,000 | 20,827,000 |
| Ratios | Â | Â | Â |
| Retention rate | 6 | 0.77 | -1.72 |
| Profit margin | -0.01 | 0.42 | 0.04 |
| Asset turnover | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| Financial leverage | 2.84 | 2.69 | 3.68 |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Retention rate = (Net Income – Cash dividends declared) ÷ Net Income = | 6.44 | ||
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Profit margin = Net Income ÷ Net sales = | -0.01 | Â | Â |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Asset turnover = Net sales ÷ Total assets = | 0.35 | Â | Â |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Shareholders' equity = | 3.01 | Â | |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Averages | Â | Â | Â |
| Retention rate | 1.83 | Â | Â |
| Profit margin | 0.15 | Â | Â |
| Asset turnover | 0.32 | Â | Â |
| Financial leverage | 3.07 | Â | Â |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage | Â | ||
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Dividend growth rate | 26.91% | Â | Â |
| Â | Â | Â | Â |
Because for most companies, the GGM is unrealistic, let´s consider the H-Model which assumes a growth rate that starts high and then declines linearly over the high growth stage, until it reverts to the long-run rate. A smoother transition to the mature phase growth rate that is more realistic.
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model (long-run rate)
With the GGM formula and simple math:
g = (P0.r - D0)/(P0+D0)
= ($36.85 ×14.16% – $1.4) ÷ ($36.85 + $1.4) = 14.16%.
The growth rates are:
| Year | Value | g(t) |
| 1 | g(1) | 26.91% |
| 2 | g(2) | 21.38% |
| 3 | g(3) | 15.85% |
| 4 | g(4) | 10.31% |
| 5 | g(5) | 4.78% |
G(2), g(3) and g(4) are calculated using linear interpolation between g(1) and g(5).
Calculation of Intrinsic Value
| Year | Value | Cash Flow | Present value |
| 0 | Div 0 | 2.16 | Â |
| 1 | Div 1 | 2.74 | 2.48 |
| 2 | Div 2 | 3.33 | 2.72 |
| 3 | Div 3 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
| 4 | Div 4 | 4.25 | 2.84 |
| 5 | Div 5 | 4.46 | 2.69 |
| 5 | Terminal Value | 80.04 | 48.33 |
| Intrinsic value | Â | Â | 61.91 |
| Current share price | Â | Â | 38.80 |
Final comment
When the stock price is lower than the intrinsic value, the stock is said to be undervalued, and it makes sense to buy the stock. A margin of safety, usually a 20%, is recommended, and in this case is about 60%. Trading nearly the 52-week high seems to be announcing a fall in price. However, we think that it is the right time to add the stock to your long-term portfolio. For the coming years, we continue expecting a promising outlook for this industry. So, I feel confident in my bullish sentiment.
We have covered just one valuation method, and investors should not rely on one alone in order to determine a fair (over/under) value for a potential investment.
Hedge fund gurus like Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio) and John Keeley (Trades, Portfolio) added this stock to their portfolios in the third quarter of 2014, as well as Caxton Associates (Trades, Portfolio).
Disclosure: Omar Venerio holds no position in any stocks mentioned.
[1] These values were obtained from Bloomberg´s CRP function.
