Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported blockbuster year-over-year earnings growth of over 40%, driven by a healthy iPhone business which reported unit share take in every country. However, shares sold off as the market began its virtually seasonal questioning of Apple's long-term growth abilities. We continue to think Apple is capable of mid-to-high single digit revenue growth over the next several years, mostly attributed to the Company's massive (we estimate well over 500 million), upgradable installed unit base.
Combined with increasing cost benefits due to their increasing scale, along with outsized cash balances and reduced share count, we believe Apple is capable of generating a double-digit rate of earnings per share growth over the next several years. We think Apple's highly repeatable upgrade base is a byproduct of their constant innovation across not just products, but also services and distribution, where Apple's efforts have been particularly disruptive given their scale.
For example, during the quarter Apple announced a new iPhone purchase program allowing users to upgrade their iPhones every twelve months. The program will be run by Apple, and financed by a third party financial institution. Importantly, telecommunications providers have little to no presence in this new buying process. Now, nearly from the day telco iPhone subsidies were introduced, we have seen the market fret over telco providers' supposed negotiating leverage over Apple. Yet over the past few quarters, most of the major U.S. telecom providers announced the phasing out of such subsidy programs. Not for a lack of demand or efficacy, we view this phasing -out had more to do with customers demanding the "latest and greatest" devices, particularly from Apple, along with telcos' inability to service this demand financially, as a wave of price competition has pressured subscription plan revenues. We think Apple's novel new distribution program meaningfully reduces the Company's reliance on telecom providers and shortens the "upgrade cycle" which should bode well for future iPhone sales. Not least, we think Apple has further proven that the future cash flows of its iPhone franchise are more recurring than they are one-off transactions. As Apple continues to reinforce its competitive positioning, we estimate the Company now controls around 90% of worldwide smartphone profits - a very rare occurrence in any industry, much less the highly competitive consumer electronics segment. Given the share price pullback, we estimate Apple is trading at a single-digit price to earnings multiple (adjusted for balance sheet cash) which is substantially lower than the market and peers despite Apple's superior competitive positioning and long tail of double-digit growth, so we added to positions.
From David Rolfe (Trades, Portfolio)'s Wedgewood Partners third quarter 2015 letter.
