The S&P 500 has climbed 6.2% since that column came out and is on its way to a double-digit gain next year. Reason: 2007 is the third year of the presidential term, and third years tend to be bullish.
In not a single one of the 16 third years beginning in 1943 did stocks fall. While the market rose only 5% or so in 2 of these years (1947 and 1987), all other third years saw double-digit gains. Interestingly, foreign markets did well in these years, too. Beginning in 1943 third years of U.S. presidential terms all showed gains for the Morgan Stanley World Index, gains that averaged 20.5%.
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In not a single one of the 16 third years beginning in 1943 did stocks fall. While the market rose only 5% or so in 2 of these years (1947 and 1987), all other third years saw double-digit gains. Interestingly, foreign markets did well in these years, too. Beginning in 1943 third years of U.S. presidential terms all showed gains for the Morgan Stanley World Index, gains that averaged 20.5%.
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